The gold on the rise
After a year 2010 under the spotlight, gold should remain the star of 2011. The precious metal, which has chalked up record this year, with one ounce, which exceeded $ 1400, should remain on an upward trend next year. "The growth should continue in coming quarters," says Sylvain Sérandour manager at Federal Finance.
The yellow metal has marked the year 2010 by a steady increase over 25% since January. Fueled by central bank buying, but mostly by concerns surrounding the European sovereign debt and fiat currencies, gold has become the safe haven for investors. Exacerbated this role, which has taken over the rational elements of supply and demand, in the opinion of all observers, one of the most striking phenomenon of 2010.It should also be further driving the rise in 2011: "Central banks will continue to buy. Moreover, it is an investment of choice for emerging markets and demand for ETF should rise further. Although it is difficult to forecast, we can expect an ounce up among the 1,600 dollars, "says Sylvain Serandour.
Macroeconomic announcements, however, could turn against gold. "The sovereign risk should settle down, and we anticipate interest rates rising in late 2011. In an uptrend, gold would fluctuate at the mercy of macroeconomic announcements, "but it warns. Buzaré Frederick, head of equity management at Dexia Asset Managment, is more pessimistic and predicted one ounce in the 1400 dollars next year because of an economy that is accelerating.But "there may be an economic return to normal and then a new wave of fear about Spain or Portugal. It's very volatile, "says he.
Same precautions for Harry Sebag, an analyst at Saxo Bank, which prefers to place his pawns on the money. "In the first three quarters 2010, the money has remained fairly stable at around 18 dollars per ounce while gold fell from 1100 to 1250 dollars. Since we see that money again for the delay and has a nice development that should continue into 2011. This catching up could take place in the coming months with an ounce that can reach $ 50 late 2011 or even $ 100 an ounce within 3 years.
The platinum and palladium in particular, will also be receiving attention. This has been a great year 2010 with effects still visible from the scrapping of the car market, reaching the highest in nine years, winning more than 85% over the year.But this metal will in 2011 to address the projected drop in the automotive sector will no longer receive any government assistance.
A barrel of oil unsurprisingly
For its part, the oil has not marked the spirits, despite a rise to more than $ 90 a barrel by year-end. "The beginning of the year was weak in a context of fear of relapse of growth," said Frederic Buzaré. "There was a relative balance between supply and demand, with a barrel between 70 and 90 dollars. The price level was well controlled by OPEC, "said Sylvain Sérandour. "The erratic movements of the euro / dollar exchange ultimately had little effect on the price change in 2010," he said.
Without expecting an explosion in demand, analysts expect a bullish year 2011 for oil. However, opinions differ on the course objectives.For Federal Finance, oil is expected to increase slightly, driven by lower production majors who have limited their investment two years ago. But it should remain within a range between 80 and 100 dollars. More optimistically, Saxo Bank is located in a scenario of crisis, with rising demand that will pull the barrel to 110 dollars in the first half. Same side of Dexia AM who said that the rebound will continue. "The question is whether we can return to the record level of 2008 with $ 150 a barrel. That's the big question mark, "said Frederic Buzaré.
Copper in great shape
In addition to gold, 2011 will be brassy. As for base metals, the red metal will be missed next year.In 2010 already, the copper had distinguished itself from other metals with a gain of 35% in twelve months, despite the strong movements in currencies (the dollar strong, as during the Irish crisis, normally penalizes purchases). "You could expect a correction including bad U.S. housing figures. But despite these shortcomings, it has signed a very good performance, "said Sylvain Sérandour.
Copper has enjoyed a year of restocking after the crisis and demand remains strong while the reserves established are low. In India, for example, "the next five-year plan to increase infrastructure spending to 1 trillion dollars," said Compagnie Financiere Edmond de Rothschild, who said that in China, the materials have "a strong demand . For Federal Finance, "this lets consider a good direction, unlike other metals.Aluminum, zinc and nickel have indeed suffered in 2010. Next year, they should not receive much interest, penalized by an abundant supply.
Note that the side of the mining companies, 2011 should confirm the craze for big mergers. Already this year, several unions, often remained at the stage announcements or rumors, rocked the industry: Arcelor and BHP, Xstrata and Glencore, Arcelor and Massey Energy or BHP and Potash. The movement should continue in 2011, this time with real concretization. "The successful companies," says Harry Sebag. "In an environment where new deposits are hard to find, these movements are logical concentration. They will be reinforced by the strategic determination of some governments to retain control over key sectors, such as China with rare earths, "said Sylvain Sérandour.
Agricultural commodities under threat
That leaves the agricultural raw materials, one of the most difficult to grasp because of its heavy dependence on the weather. The latter, very capricious, has enabled the agricultural sector to sign a very successful year 2010. The twelve months have been marked by historic heatwave and fires in Russia that led to the withdrawal of one of the largest wheat exporting market. In addition, there were droughts in the American continent or the floods in Asia. Cereal prices have surged more than 70% in August, records were affected by coffee or cocoa, also troubled by political problems in Cote d'Ivoire. "It was a very good year," says one at Federal Finance.
Remains whether this beautiful year recur in 2011.Consumption, rising steadily, emerging countries should be the main driver of rising next year. But the weather conditions are still not unanimous favorite of the industry analysts. Especially as agricultural commodities should be particularly affected by the regulation of commodity markets, announced by the French presidency of the G20. In this area, "there were many effects of ads in 2010 but nothing concrete," says Federal Finance. "It will depend on political will but decisions will be taken in 2011, believed to be at Saxo Bank. Dexia AM but warned: "The regulations will be bypassed and will have a negative effect." The debate was launched.
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