Ireland
• Weaknesses: The banks are the main problem of the Celtic Tiger. Almost all of the deficit abyss of 2010, representing 32% of GDP, is due to the aid plan for banks.
The financial sector had grown beyond the reasonable riding the housing bubble of the 2000s. The crisis has killed the market for construction and real estate. Households find themselves in great difficulties: their debts are often secured on their house, atteingnent 150% of their gross disposable income. "The default rate could rise in coming months, which could weaken banks and indirectly increase the deficit of the state, which would come to their rescue," worries Adele Renaux, economist at Natixis.
• Strengths: Ireland is a highly competitive country, unlike Spain and Portugal.The corporation tax to 12.5%, remains well below that of its European counterparts, between 20% and 30%. The workforce is highly trained.
Contrary also to countries of the Iberian Peninsula, Ireland specializes in industries carriers. Through pharmacy, chemistry or even the food, the island has a trade surplus. Exports should also be the principal-if not the only engine of growth in the medium term. In 2011, BNP Paribas expects an increase in activity of 1.5%.
Portugal
• Weaknesses: Its economy is specialized in industries with low added value, such as textiles. It is in direct competition with low cost countries such as the Asian tigers, Tunisia or Turkey. In addition, its main customer is none other than Spain, a country in deep trouble.
The economic outlook is bleak. The recent increase in VAT and a labor market should destroy any heavily damaged recovery in consumption. GDP expected to fall 0.2% in 2011, according to BNP Paribas.
• Strengths: "Portugal has launched the 2000 reforms to improve its competitiveness," says Jesus Castillo, an economist at Natixis. "But the compression of wages has cut consumer spending."
Spain
• Weaknesses: As in Ireland, the consequences of the explosion of the housing bubble were terrible. The regional banks are in big trouble. The real estate market and construction industry are affected. For a long time.
• Strengths: The patient self-inflicted shock therapy and public debt should remain well below levels seen in other peripheral countries.On the other hand, "clean the economy continues as the show (…) the sharp increase in household savings and the shift in activity towards the industry," noted economists at BNP Paribas.
Still, activity has been driven, in recent years by the housing boom. Spain now has to find another engine. In the coming years, "the challenge for Spain is to find a new economic model by investing in training in particular, Analysis Jesus Castillo, an economist at Natixis. A metamorphosis that would take time. Meanwhile, the country counts on tourism.
Greece
• Weaknesses: Historically, the Greek public finances have been badly managed, with a side boondoggle spending and tax revenues that did not fit. Blame it on a very strong culture of tax evasion.Result, public debt will peak at 150% of GDP in 2013. A record in the euro area.
The economy remains in recession. The GDP fell 1.1% in the third quarter. Tight budget, business investment and sluggish demand at half-mast should lead to a 3.1% decrease in activity in 2011, according to BNP Paribas.
• Highlights: Greece is the first World owner. This asset should tell him when world trade recovers. Tourism remains a strong point.
His hourly productivity is higher than those of Spain and Portugal. Moreover, it is still catching up with the economic level of the rest of Europe, which ensures a reserve growth over time. Finally, it enjoys substantial EU subsidies (8.5 billion euros in 2008).
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