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Even the market is affected by the economic crisis. Indeed, according to research firm Xerfi published Monday, the organic food market will grow more slowly in coming years. Main reason: the deteriorating economic conditions resulting in a decrease in the purchasing power of households. "With the crisis, consumers prioritize while prices of organic products are higher than those of traditional foods," said Xerfi. Result: Sales of organic products should no longer move as "5% in 2012, 8% in 2013 before returning to 5% in 2014 and 2015, according to estimates by the firm. With a turnover of 4.5 billion euros on that date. " In 2011 sales in this market segment posted 3.65 billion euros against a little over $ 2 billion in 2008.  

It was between 2006 and 2010 that the market for organic products has seen its best years of growth, with rates between 10 and 20%. What stir the appetite of major retailers that since has continued to expand its range of organic and glean new customers compared to retailers and specialty networks. So much so that today 47% retail market share. An influence that may still grow.

The hypermarkets always looking of the lowest price, should benefit from this startégie to attract new customers. A strategy that is even more effective in a context of economic crisis. Mass distribution should surpass the 50% in 2015 while the share of experts, networks and independent, should decrease to 30% in 2015 (48% in 2005) concludes Xerfi. The remaining organic food no matter what a niche market.

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Employment, austerity and growth. The election program of the Popular Party (PP) is turned almost exclusively to the economy. Of six chapters, only the last two – and foreign policy institutions – are not related to the crisis in Spain.

Entitled "More company, better government," the program is inspired by a moderate liberalism and makes a message in the form of virtuous circle. A mantra repeated endlessly the conservative Mariano Rajoy, president of the Popular Party, which won an absolute majority in Sunday elections: change will generate trust, for growth and employment, which in turn will promote a return to financial balance.

Entrepreneurs appear to be the better off. Alone should benefit from tax cuts. For others, the austerity will be the rule.

Their remedy for the debt crisis in the eurozone was expected. After donning their new clothes Nobel Prize in Economics in 2011, Americans Christopher Sims and Thomas Sargent have shot so the map of fiscal federalism. Historical precedent should serve as a model according to them: the union of the budgets of the thirteen founding states of the United States with the Constitution of 1787. Christopher Sims, then this is a "definite solution" with which "we were born." And Thomas Sargent called the euro area to design "a way of sharing the fiscal burden to link budgetary powers to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the lender of last resort". According to him, the outlook for the euro will remain "dark" if those links "also remain unclear."

Although the idea is not new, it has resurfaced thanks to the Greek crisis.On Wednesday, the political and business across the EU (including billionaire George Soros and Martti Ahtisaari, former Finnish Prime Minister) signed a platform calling the euro zone leaders to unite. Published by the Financial Times, the letter calls for the "establishment of a joint budget that would raise funds and to ensure fiscal discipline of the Member States." In this spirit, Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, has recently called Europe adopts "a federal Minister of Finance."

Judging "pragmatic" position of the two Nobel Jerome Creel, assistant director of studies at the OFCE and professor at the ESCP Europe also believes that this idea of ​​fiscal federalism is "a must". Clearly, the euro area is expected to have a real "federal budget" next national budget.This would better "regulate the activity" of the Union through a "permanent reciprocity 'in bilateral relations between the world's strongest and weakest, especially in times of economic shocks. "When people buy Mercedes, Greeks contribute to German growth, so it is normal to help him when needed," the economist is an example.

"The euro has to walk on two legs"

The Assistance Fund of the euro area (EFSF), which has helped Portugal and Ireland, is seen by Jerome Creel as a draft of a further fiscal federalism low fee pay day loans. According to him, it applies to the current debate on the issue of Eurobonds ("that could eventually finance a large common budget"), like that, embryonic and far from unanimous, the tax on financial transactions.

To be effective advocates Jérôme Creel, the introduction of the federal budget will not happen without the ECB. "The euro must be able to walk on two legs: a lever for its independent ECB monetary and fiscal policy coordination," he says. Yet the institution of Frankfurt has so far only goal against inflation (unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve). Result, coordination and relations between the ECB and the U.S. are regularly strained: the economist recalled that in June 2008, including Nicolas Sarkozy had won against the institution in Frankfurt, who had decided to increase its key rate Director of 4% to 4.25% after soaring commodity prices.The ECB "should ask the question of economic growth" and "not just for inflation," lambasted the head of state, fearing a rise of the euro against the dollar penalizes exports of the area euro. Six months later, contagion from the financial crisis of U.S. forces in the Old Continent, the ECB has revised its rates three times down, up 0.75% at end 2008.

Problem: the establishment of a true federal budget involves a "significant transfer of sovereignty to the European" art Alexandre Delaigue, an economist blogger Econoclaste. "For this to work, it would require that Brussels can closely monitor and control deficits anything related to the competitiveness of the members, he insists.With the budget, it directly affects people's lives. "Collage, he cites the" retirement age, the conditions for unemployment insurance, "which would then indirectly controlled by the lever via Brussels budget. In addition, he said the United States, "the union budget could be made after the Civil War …"

To cope with an unprecedented situation, Barack Obama wants to convince the Congress and the entire nation to deploy exceptional means. In a speech 32 minutes, the head of the White House detailed the various measures of the broad stimulus plan of 447 billion, or 3% of U.S. GDP, it wishes to implement.

• 240 billion in tax relief

The flagship device this bill is based on the extension of exemptions from employer and employee. It represents $ 240 billion, more than half of the plan.

Thus, 175 billion will be dedicated to the continuation in 2012 of halving the employee contributions, or $ 1,500 less taxes for an average household.The reduction in employer contributions will represent it at a cost of $ 65 billion.

• 67 billion recruitment incentives

Moreover, the maintenance of unemployment benefits for part-time employees, trainees and entrepreneurs will cost $ 49 billion. Tax credits of $ 4,000 to encourage employers hiring long-term unemployed account for it, $ 8 billion. A fund to finance initiatives for the return to work in the direction of the unskilled and disadvantaged, will have 5 billion.

• 140 billion in major projects

In parallel, the President launched a policy of public works, again to stimulate employment. The White House and plans to "get employees to work while rebuilding and modernizing America" ​​via an envelope of 85 billion.And the objective is to focus on the Public: $ 35 billion will freeze up to 280,000 job cuts for teachers and maintain the jobs of police and firefighters.

In addition, 50 billion will be dedicated to the modernization of transport infrastructure and 30 billion to the improvement of at least 35,000 public schools. Other projects, the head of the White House wants to create a National Infrastructure Bank has $ 10 billion and 15 billion will be used for public projects or renovation of housing reinvestment and local business vacancies.Finally, the expansion of wireless internet broadband will have zero cost as offset by the sale of concessions to private.

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The Paris Bourse succeed does bind to a fourth straight increase session on Thursday? Yesterday, the Cac 40 ended on a strong increase of 3.07% allowing it to pick up 3250 points. And signals from Wall Street, which also ended the month of August on an increase of 0.46% are good. Also this morning, Asian markets generally appear in the green, backed by the index of manufacturing activity in China has reached 50.9 in August, against 50.7 in July.

Investors seem reassured by the Fed to continue to support that ensures the growth of the United States by a new policy of monetary easing.These remarks, made during the last minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, reinforce those of the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, who on Friday called the elect to make fiscal stimulus measures to complement the action of the bank Central. They were also supported by the publication of encouraging indicators.

Busy schedule in the U.S.

On Thursday, investors will keep an eye on the macroeconomic agenda of the day will still be charged in the United States. On the menu: the Monster Employment Index and weekly jobless claims before the highly anticipated monthly employment report on Friday. Productivity in the second quarter and is expected construction spending and ISM manufacturing.

In France, the unemployment rate as defined in International Labour Office (ILO) decreased slightly by 0.1 points in the second quarter to 9.1% on average in metropolitan (9.6% including the departments of overseas), according to data seasonally adjusted (SA) Interim released Thursday by the INSEE

As for the oil markets, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 21 cents to 89.02 dollars in morning trading and a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery climbed 29 cents to 115 , $ 14. On the currency markets, the euro fell slightly to 1.4358 dollar.

Values ​​to follow

Banking

Greek debt is out of control and the measures taken by the government can not restore the finances, the report of an independent parliamentary commission on Wednesday.

Illiad

The internet service provider reported in the first half of 231,000 new subscribers under its brand Free (excluding Alice), a market share of 36% and saw its EBITDA margin to improve by a , 4 point to 40%, or 416 payday loans online.4 million euros on sales of 1.04 billion (+2.6%).

France Telecom

The U.S. administration has initiated legal proceedings Wednesday to block the sale of Deutsche Telekom's U.S. subsidiary T-Mobile to the giant AT & T for reasons of respect for competition.

Pernod Ricard

The French producer of wines and spirits, announced Thursday a 10% increase in net profit for the year 2010-2011, exceeding for the first time the billion euros.

Eurazeo

The investment company said Thursday in a loss of 106.3 million euros in the first half due to losses on derivatives and goodwill

GDF Suez

The group said it had completed the acquisition of gas storage sites in Germany.

Eiffage

The new CEO of the group does not preclude the sale or closure of loss-making subsidiaries to consolidate the early resumption of the performance of the construction group observed in the first half.

Saint-Gobain

The group announced it would invest $ 100 million (69.41 million euros) in the United States to create a factory specializing in the manufacture of ceramic balls ("proppants") used in wells oil and gas.

Latécoère confirms its objectives

Lagardère

The group was forced to significantly revise down its forecast for operating profit for 2011 because of the difficulties encountered by the sports center in the first half.

Maurel et Prom

The group took the first half of the increase in its oil production and high prices in oil prices to clear the results up sharply.

Guyenne et Gascogne

The group reported a loss in the first half, the franchisee of Carrefour have been penalized by its subsidiary Sogara whose accounts were affected by several non-recurring items.

Latécoère

The group, whose net income rebounded sharply during the first half, confirmed its targets for operating profit in 2011 and 2012.

Theolia

The group reported Wednesday a recovery in its interim results, the French wind power has reduced its interest expense over the period, particularly through the conversion action of nearly two million of bonds.

After market, Neopost will publish its revenue for the second quarter and Stallergenes results for the first half.

Among the statistics expected Monday in Wall Street, the surprise came from consumer spending. The Americans have in fact spent more than expected in July. Up 0.8% on month, consumer spending across the Atlantic more than 0.3 percentage points the level expected by analysts. Because of inflation, which rose 0.4% from June, consumer spending rose 0.5% in real terms. Their progress is the highest since December 2009.

This increase serves as a good sign for U.S. growth in the third quarter. What mood enhancing buyer investors, who already showed optimism prior to publication. At the opening of the session on Monday in New York, the indices showed the green, and have strengthened their gains throughout the day.At the final bell, the Dow Jones advance of 2.26% at 11,539 points, the Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's 500 rising 3.32% respectively in 2562 and 2.83% points to 1210 points, the latter going over the bar of 1200 points, a first for two weeks.

The indices remained in the green while the IMF has revised down sharply its growth forecast for the U.S. this year and next, said Monday the Italian news agency Ansa, quoting a draft of the new economic forecasts Fund. According to the Italian agency, the IMF table than on a 1.6% growth this year in the United States, against a previous forecast of 2.5% published in June, and 2% next year against two , 7%.

Also, note that the promises of home sales fell 1.3% in July compared with June, as the market expected, according to figures released by the National Association of Realtors.They increased by 2.4% in June Over one year are up 14.4%.

The final impact less severe than expected from Hurricane Irene passed over New York yesterday, also contributes to investor optimism. Similarly, after being confused by the speech of Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, on Friday, market participants regain hope in a possible intervention by the Fed.

The Dow Jones above 11,000 points

According to analysts at Aurel BGC in fact, the announcement by Ben Bernanke, a two-day meeting in September to study in detail the possible deployment of new monetary tools, reassured. "Either the recovery of economic activity is growing, or the central bank will implement new support measures, they summarize.Under these conditions, the U.S. indices rebounded sharply after Bernanke's speech. "

In fact, dropped below the 11,000 points while the Fed chairman began to speak, the Dow finished at 11 284.5, up 1.2% on Friday night. A final increase, which encouraged European stock markets bounce back on Monday morning, except in London, closed due to holiday.

Another indicator which will be followed on Monday, the promises of home sales for July are expected down 0.1% from a consensus of analysts, against 2.4% rise previously.

The bank remained in the spotlight

No major publication is out of business side.

The concern again lead the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40 was launched on the day down 0.37% to 3064.49 points. But around 9:40, the fall has accelerated: the Paris index of 3.44% to unscrew 2970.13 points, releasing the threshold of 3000 points. The CAC has, however, resumed in the afternoon around 16:30 it is in the green briefly before returning to equilibrium, yielding 0.10% at 3072.88 points. London erases even his losses: the FTSE-100 gained 0.22%. In Frankfurt, the Dax lost no more than 0.39%. Madrid still loose 1.38%, Milan were down 0.53% and 0.57% in Zurich. Across the Atlantic, Wall Street returns to the green: the Dow Jones gained 0.29% and the Nasdaq 0.93%.

Operators are struggling to recover from their emotions after the new European stock markets plummeting and U.S. Thursday. This morning, Asian stock market sent negative signals with indices in very sharp drop.This bad mood due to a surge in concern about the state of the global economy, reinforced by poor indicators of the Atlantic. Bad index measuring the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity in the region, lower sales of existing homes in July, new jobless claims rising again during the second week of August … All signs of the apparent stagnation of growth in the United States.

Concerns about U.S. growth fears add to the debt crisis in Europe, European banks are the first to bear the brunt. In its Thursday edition, The Wall Street Journal reported on fears the U.S. Federal Reserve on the liquidity of European banks.And for the first time since February, the European Central Bank (ECB) has given a major dollar loan to a European bank, whose identity was not revealed. An action that reinforces doubts about the ability of banks to refinance.

Morgan Stanley has added his two cents to panic, explaining that she perceived the United States and Europe as "dangerously close to recession." The President of the European Union, Herman van Rompuy, tried Thursday to calm the mind by ensuring that there was "no new recession" in sight. And this morning, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping has reaffirmed that the U.S. economy was "resilient". In vain.

"The bears are back"

"The bears (pessimistic players, ie) are back in force that night, after disappointing U.S. economic indicators and renewed fears about the stability of European banks, which prompted investors to push the button sales," said Ben Potter, an analyst at IG Markets in Australia. "There seems to be getting ready for a weekend very ugly, with a market dominated once again by fear and panic," he added.

Gold reached a new record Friday morning in Asia, to 1,837.50 dollars per ounce, due to the concern. And oil, which fell 6% in New York yesterday, continues to fall in morning trading.A barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery lost 1.69 dollars to 80.69 dollars while that of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery gave 68 cents to 106.31 dollars.

No significant indicator that could reverse the trend, are expected on Friday.

Values ​​to follow

The banking sector

European financial stocks, which had been rolled by a renewed tensions in the interbank market and concerns about the short-term refinancing of the banks were still under attack this morning.BNP Paribas (-3.01% to 33.18 euros), Natixis (0.97% to 2.924 euros), Credit Agricole (-0.40% to 6.203 euros), Societe Generale (-0.46% at 21 , 50 euros) and AXA (-1.42% to 10.405 euros), however, have erased some of their losses in the afternoon.

Danone: -2.21% to 45.835 euros

Nestlé, the group became a favorite activity for infant formula, Wyeth, Pfizer subsidiary, valued at approximately ten billion dollars (seven billion euros), officials said a source familiar with the bank.

Technip: -0.98% to 59.38 euros

The French engineering group said it had received a letter of intent on the part of the American oil company Anadarko for the construction of an offshore platform for the Gulf of Mexico.

All weekend, they multiplied the meetings and news: the political leaders of industrialized countries have mobilized to show that they had taken stock of efforts to engage to address concerns about the state of their finances. What to try to reassure markets, worried after the announcement Friday after the close of a deterioration in the rating of sovereign debt of the United States by Standard & Poor's, but also disturbed by the difficulties faced by countries the euro area to implement the solutions to the crisis in Greece. With always in sight the risk of contagion of debt to other countries.

In the wake of the Asian stock markets, down sharply this morning, the benchmark index in Paris should begin his week on a further decline in the eleventh row. Unheard of since the creation of the CAC 40 index in 1987.At 8:15, the futures on the CAC 40 was down 2.18% to 3209 points. Elsewhere in Europe, the future of the Eurostoxx 50, Dax, German and English are the Footsie down 1.9% to 2.4%.

Of course, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy reiterated yesterday their determination to ensure that the bailout of Greece on 21 July be adopted before the end of September. They also praised the efforts of Spain and especially those of Italy, two weak links in the euro area at present. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) said it would implement "active" its buyback program obligations. However, this measure made and announced last week by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the institution, had absolutely convinced investors.On the contrary …

Next on the list?

Moreover, the decision of Standard & Poor's on the U.S. should continue to haunt the minds of the markets, despite a weekend to "digest" the news. Now that the world's largest economy, long considered one of the most reliable borrowers, is not as well marked, which could consider itself safe from degradation? In France, this concern should be limited, however, the chief economist for Europe, Standard & Poor's Jean-Michel Six, who said Saturday that the agency maintained the "AAA" of France, in a stable outlook.

Before testing the first effects on the markets of this political mobilization, the announcement of the ECB on repurchase of bonds has already led to support the euro against the dollar saving account pay day loan.At 7 o'clock this morning, the euro was worth 1.4321 dollars, against 1.4281 dollars on Friday night, after the dollar rose to 1.4370 on Sunday night. But above all concerns macroeconomic benefit to gold, which recorded a new record Monday on the market in Hong Kong, dying for the first time the maximum 1700 dollars an ounce, and benefiting fully from his safe haven status.

The sharp drop in oil

Instead, the side of the oil, oil prices continued to tumble on Monday. Result of numerous concerns about a possible global recession, prices show a sharp decline.In morning trading in Asia, a barrel of "light sweet crude" lost 2.59 dollars to 84.29 dollars, while that of Brent North Sea crude for September delivery fell by 2.48 dollars to 106.89 dollars.

Finally, the political mobilization should remain in force throughout the day, and guide the trend in European markets as U.S.. For the side of the macroeconomic data, the news will remain poor n this first day of the week. Unlike last week, no statistics across the Atlantic will not give further details Monday about the health of the U.S. economy or the risk of a possible recession in the country. In France alone are expected to 8:30 business surveys from INSEE in the industry and market services for the month of July.

As for values ​​to follow, business publications are scarce this week.

Archos.The manufacturer of tablet detail its annual accounts after the market closes.

Carmat. The heart specialist articificiel total announced Sunday evening the success of its capital increase launched from July 13 to 29. The former subsidiary of EADS has raised 29.3 million euros, which will fund the first clinical trials on humans.

GDF Suez. The group of energy and services has sealed, according to Les Echos, a strategic Partenaris with the Chinese sovereign wealth fund CIC, which would lead to an acquisition of a 30% interest in the exploration and production arm of French.

After months of discussions, the two alternative operators in France, Energy, Direct Energy and Poweo, will join forces. The first will announce Wednesday morning the acquisition of 46% stake in the Austrian Verbund in the second. The transaction, which amounts to 36 million euros – at a rate of 4.77 euros per share – allows Direct Energy to become the shareholder of Poweo, the company founded and headed by Charles Beigbeder long. The UK fund Ecofin has for its part, 26%, against 9.5% for the investment company Luxempart and 18.5% for the float.

"This is the first step in the formation of a major independent challenger of EDF and GDF Suez, which already book a million customers in the gas and electricity," said Xavier Caitucoli, CEO of Direct Energy.The portfolio of the company amounted to 650,000 customers specifically, while some 350,000 claims in Poweo.

Xavier Caitucoli, there is no question of seeing this combination in the ultimate act of resistance of both companies in a market ultradominé by incumbents. "Instead, we are here to stay. The new law on the organization of the electricity market, adopted recently, gives us more visibility on our margins and gives the end user the opportunity to go freely in the competition and return to regulated rates if desired ".

Almost every week, oil platforms allow leak of oil and gas in the waters of the North Sea, according to British newspaper The Guardian. The newspaper in fact, a document that identifies leaks in 2009 and 2010 reported by the operators of platforms from the British authorities responsible for health and safety, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). For the first time the name appears and the oil companies responsible for more than 100 leaks during these two years.

The Anglo-Dutch company Shell is at the top of this sad track record, with no fewer than 17 leaks "important" or "major" reported. Brent Charlie platform's alone has seven leaks that have escaped 4.9 tons of gas, of which 4.6 tonnes April 26, 2010, which resulted in a suspension of production.The Guardian notes that last Friday, the HSE has threatened to stop work on Brent Charlie. Shell has already stopped exporting oil from this platform and with three more to address safety issues.

With 5.4 tons of oil and gas spilled in two years, French Total heels Shell. Other companies are involved, such as Danish Maersk and Talisman Canada, and the BP already convicted for his role in the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico in March 2010.

"The tip of the iceberg"

During this disaster, other oil companies had assured that such an explosion could not occur on their facilities cheap pay day loans. "Safety is, was and will always be our number one priority. This is our core value, "yet assured in November 2010 Peter Voser, chief executive of Shell.But the figures published by The Guardian seriously undermine these claims and even the importance that companies attach to the security of their facilities.

Leaks reported by operators would, moreover, that "the tip of the iceberg," according to the log information. Condition of anonymity, employees say, in fact, a "code informal" drives them to silence the accident for fear of losing their jobs. Since each stop represents a loss of production, companies prefer to ignore the incident …. sometimes verges and disasters. "We were very, very close on several occasions, said Jake Molloy, general secretary of the union workers in the North Sea OILC. It is sometimes more a matter of luck than good management. Some companies do not care. Because of high oil prices, they are cutting back costs.Some have already been prosecuted. "

»View the complete table published by the Guardian

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