"Risk protectionist mastered"
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Despite the rebound in Asian stock markets Wednesday morning and the revival of U.S. consumer confidence on Tuesday, the Paris financial markets should remain febrile for the first day of September. Futures rose 0.59% to 3506 points, about 8.20am. The CAC 40 closed Tuesday August on a small increase of 0.11% to 3490.79 points. Throughout the month, the index in Paris lost more than 7%.
Vivendi raised its forecast
The set of interim results continued. Meanwhile Wendel and Altran particular, Vivendi raised its forecast for this year, after posting a 6.1% increase in sales to 13.9 billion euros and 6.6% of net income to a 26 billion euros.
Wendela investment company registered in the first half net profit of 124.5 million euros against a loss of 959 million for the same period of 2009.
Tuesday after-hours trade, Bouygues has issued a revenue down 1% in the first half and slightly raised its full-year sales (30.4 billion euros against 30.1 billion euros previously planned) .
Vinci reported interim results exceeded expectations. Its net profit was up 1.9% to 703 million euros and sales rose 2.3% to 15.5 billion euros, thanks to improved traffic conditions and benefits the acquisition of Cegelec.
Finally, Eiffage confirmed its forecast of sales for 2010 thanks to the growth of its backlog and achieved a 40% jump in net profit group share semi-annual 70 million euros payday advances .The operating profit has however declined by 2.6% to 412 million, within the scope of the downturn in work due to a climate of increased competition.
The investors also will keep an eye on Sanofi-Aventis. In the showdown, which contrasted with Genzyme, the CEO of biotech company judge, in an interview with Reuters, the high probability of finding an agreement on an offer from Sanofi on American group. However, he reiterated that Genzyme will not accept the proposed price of 69 dollars per share.According to sources close to the U.S. group will not negotiate at least $ 75.
PMI manufacturing program
On the macroeconomic front, the meeting will be especially marked by the publication of the manufacturing PMI in France (8.45am), Europe (11:00) and USA (16 hours), and the ADP survey which will give a first overview the situation on the labor market in the U.S. before the official data on Friday.
Other important indicators: the numbers of the car market in August in France (12:00). In July, new car registrations fell by 12.9% compared to last year, and 15.4% for the only French brands.
(From our special correspondent in Tokyo)
François Fillon has dropped the word naturally. He who rejects the word rigor in Paris, finally telling the truth in Tokyo. "Of all the state budgets, the only one who is not subject to discipline is that of Higher Education and Research, argues the prime minister, at the turn of a sentence imposed before an audience of five hundred Japanese businessmen and under the approving glance of Christine Lagarde.
True to his outspokenness, the Minister of Economy has not taken greater care to reassure the business community Nippon concerned about turmoil in Europe since the sinking of the Greek economy. "There is not in France, I can assure you of hidden deficits. We have a package of structural deficits, but our accounts are audited very seriously, "warned the owner of Bercy.What has been told to François Fillon not without humor: "Unfortunately, there is no hidden revenue either!"
The European austerity plans discussed at length
He came to Japan to reassure businessmen and Japanese bankers, Francois Fillon has long defended the austerity plans implemented in the euro area. The European currency crisis causes, in fact, Japan concern and uncertainty about the strength of the European Union. The major daily newspaper Nikkei has made his One, two days ago, the 30% decline in investment in the euro countries during the first half of 2010.
"I understand that, seen from Asia, our operations can sometimes be difficult to perceive and understand. But Japan's national interest is not to turn away from the euro, "Francois Fillon urged by recalling that Europe is" the great market of the developed world with 500 million consumers.Incidentally, he ditch tackle the Anglo-Saxon does not deliver, he says, a "balanced view of the success of the European Union" and invited his audience to read the German press and French.
Before leaving Tokyo, Francois Fillon met with his counterpart Naoto Kan. In addition to macroeconomic issues, the two men discussed several issues of the Franco-Japanese: nuclear, automotive and aerospace.Weakened by his recent defeat in the senatorial elections, the center-left prime minister of Japan can not implement as it sees the budget and tax reforms that could reduce Japan's debt, too colossal.
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Wednesday again, the Asian financial radiant, carried by strong quarterly results from Alcoa and Intel. On Thursday, the return to reality is brutal. Red dominates the markets and doubts about economic recovery back. The reason: the pessimistic talk from Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, who has already pulled down Wall Street.
The surprise drop in retail sales across the Atlantic (-0.5%) is the straw that broke the camel's Fed. The Fed is lowering its outlook for the world's largest economy to a range between 3% and 3.5%, while three months ago, it was a growth of 3.2% to 3 7%. New measures could even be taken to support the economy.
Japan sees a brighter future
A Tokyo Stock Exchange reacts badly to these ads.In mid-session, the Nikkei lost 0.95% to 9702 points, while the Topix loose 1.45% to 858 points. The more positive about the central bank (BOJ) in the archipelago thus pass almost unnoticed. This morning, though the latter has announced that she saw again significantly increased its growth forecast for the current fiscal year from April 2010 to March 2011, to 2.6% from 1.8% previously estimated. "An improvement is expected due to the increased growth of emerging countries," the BoJ said. This upward revision is due to the government, which in June raised its forecast for growth, also at 2.6%, against 1.4% in its previous estimate.
The BoJ has, however, slightly lowered its growth forecast for 2011-2012 to 1.9% against 2% previously expected free online credit report.Because of deflation, the monetary policy committee has also decided unanimously to leave its rate unchanged at 0.10%.
Slower Growth in China
On the stock markets of Hong Kong and Shanghai, investors are pessimistic. The key indices of the two financial centers are losing 0.28% (20.503points) and 0.36% (2461 points).
In addition to the Fed, the markets saw a dim announcing a slowdown in the national economy in the second quarter. China's GDP has been increasing by 10.3% yoy, against 11.9% at the end of the first quarter. Economists expect at least a growth of 10.5%. In the first half, the economy grew by 11.1%.
Side indicators, the index of consumer prices rose 2.9% in June over a year.Industrial production grew 17.6% yoy in the first half, while investment in fixed capital rose 25.5% year on year.
Oil mast
With China and Japan in the red, the other financial centers are also doubts the move. In Australia, the S & P lost 0.57% in India, Sensex 0.05% loose. Only the Korean Kosdaq climbed 0.69%.
Crude prices were also down on Thursday morning trade in Asia. A barrel of light sweet crude for August delivery lost 14 cents to 76.90 dollars a barrel, while Brent North Sea due to identical, yielding 53 cents to 76.24 dollars.
The goals are ambitious but tenable after Pierre Mongin. The head of the RATP said in an interview with Les Echos on Monday he wants to improve efforts to the company's investment this year. The company expects an increase of 10% of these expenditures in 2010 to 1.4 billion euros. "In everything we want to invest 7 billion between 2009 and 2013," he says. These expenses will be allocated to the modernization of the existing network: improving customer service, extending lines, sustainability of the industrial tool. "We have the means to this ambitious policy," explains Pierre Mongin.
The boss of the RATP is excited about the upturn looming gently. In the first five months of the year, the group has recorded 30 million more trips compared to 2009."We feel a tremor on commuting," said Pierre Mongin, which emphasizes a return to positive growth for the RER, barometers of activity (+0.7% -4% against a year ago).
Take a major international
Another ambitious project: the development of Greater Paris. Connect the belt of small suburbs of Paris will require a massive investment of between 20 and 25 billion euros, mainly from local authorities. According to Peter Mangin, the project must be completed in order to "avoid economic decline" in Europe and "be able to create an endogenous growth".
Beyond France and Europe, these investments have the ambition to "bring the RATP in the top 5 worldwide transport companies," said the chief executive of the company.To do this, other acquisitions, following those of certain assets Transdev and Veolia, are possible.
RATP is a turnover of 6.2 billion euros in 2015 against 4.2 billion in 2009. Nearly 25% of these revenues should be generated by subsidiaries outside the Ile-de-France. "The strategic differentiation from our competitors lies in our engineering capabilities. This knowledge gives us advantages comparable to those of EDF Energy, "warns Pierre Mongin.
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The stock performance does not lie. Since the beginning of the year, the Euronext Building & Construction fell 18%. Values that balance the index are battered stock market. Wednesday again, the index meant the worst performing sector in Europe. The Irish manufacturer CRH, which warned on its sales in 2010, lost nearly 9% while the French Lafarge realized the worst performance of the ACC. It also loses 28.95% since January 1. Over the same period, Saint Gobain coward 17.15%, while 11.24% abandons Vinci.
The Irish group has yet taken a cold snap in stating that its sales in 2010 would be affected more severely than expected by the consequences of fiscal consolidation in the euro area and slowing the pace of recovery in USA.
The news did not surprise analysts."The fiscal crisis has not improved the situation of the sector because governments are pushing the major works to reduce the growing deficit," said Harry Sebag, an analyst at Saxo Bank. The financial crisis has also hit the industry particularly since the latter is highly dependent on the banks with which it finances a large majority of buildings.
The figures for real estate in the U.S. are also very revealing. In June, there were only 300,000 new home sales on a new year while the consensus was expecting about 424,000 sales.
Outlook not reassuring
For the future, the industry should be very cautious. "We are in a context of sluggish growth and unemployment prevails with a high public and private debt.Certainly the infrastructure programs of national recovery plans may lead us to believe a recovery in the sector, however, this growth drivers must be qualified with the recently introduced austerity policies, "said Harry Sebag. For example, France had planned to inject four billion euros in the construction sector in 2009. But only 2.5 billion have been invested and a slowdown in public works is possible for the remaining 1.5 billion.
"Businesses have already significantly impacted margins and cut prices to gain market share over the weaker euro and higher commodity prices, driven by demand from emerging economies, clouding the outlook for the sector , "says the analyst.
There is no question of a collapse."The activity is still declining, but remained stable for the rest of the year is possible if the growth recovery by 2011," warns Harry Sebag.
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"No recovery in construction before 2012
The success is well meet up for the latest Apple products, the iPad. The company announced the Apple had sold more than 3 million copies of his tablet. And less than three months after its launch. In good shape Thursday, June 24 launch of the iPhone 4.
Apple has delayed for one month out of its touch pad internationally because of the huge demand in the United States, which had exceeded its expectations. Next month the tablet, which combines the functionality of a mini-computer, a player and a media player must land in nine additional countries (Austria, Belgium, Hong Kong, Ireland, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand and Singapore).
News that support the Apple stock offering. Quoted on the Nasdaq, Apple still wins the title more than 1.36% to 273.85 dollars, close to its highest of 275.97 dollars.But analysts see the stock price well above its record close reached last Friday in payday loans with no fax. For the more optimistic, and like the popular analysts at Deutsche Bank, the price of Apple stock could still earn $ 100, $ 375.
44 million iPhones sold in 2010 4
Last week, Apple and the U.S. operator AT & T, which has exclusivity on the iPhone in the U.S. have had to suspend the process of pre-orders, their system is clogged by the enormous demand, and Apple CEO Steve Jobs had to apologize.
The new multifunctional phone, especially with a high definition screen, a feature allowing telephone conversations and video editing software video, has landed Thursday in U.S. stores.Some analysts believe the iPhone will sell 4 million copies to 44 this year, 55 million units next year.
Thursday at the conference NPA-Le Figaro, Stéphane Richard, CEO of France Telecom, has not minced his words. "We're not a patron. On The World, we take a look industrial. "What interests telecom operator, is essentially The World Interactive, the joint venture group Le Monde and Lagardere. Orange would bring his digital expertise. The objective is to achieve the same "marriage" of advertising agencies news sites. Stéphane Richard praised the merits of a merger between Orangeactu and Lemonde.fr, respectively second and third information sites in France. However, the advertising of the World Interactive, called iRégie.com is a subsidiary of World Economy Advertising, itself owned 51% by Le Monde, against 49% of Publicis.
"To play a marginal role"
Problem.If Orange wants to play a role in Le Monde Interactive and its governance, it will have to redeem the minority shares of two words: Lagardère and Publicis. But Lagardere has made it clear he was not a seller 's best payday advance. So, to achieve his ends, Orange must accept an interest in the whole group Le Monde newspaper and the Web. Orange is ready "if necessary, to play a marginal role in the round table" investing "nearly 40 million" on the side of takeover candidates, whoever they are.
The last candidate to have filed a date préoffre is the group Le Nouvel Observateur. His boss, Claude Perdriel, would invest 80 million euros alongside a partner. In front, he will find the offer of the trio Pigasse-Niel-Bergé.All this agitation on the part of candidates has been at the center of the ordinary and extraordinary general meeting of the Society of Editors of the World (MRS) held in the afternoon on Thursday. The next meeting should be convened on June 25, time to get a clearer picture on the submission of applications.
Time is running out, because the world must find the money before July 15. Otherwise, it may be insolvent.
One after the other, the candidates for the resumption of the World out of the wood. After the unexpected arrival of Orange Tuesday night, Wednesday was the turn of the Spanish group Prisa, a faithful shareholder of the World, which holds 15.01% stake, confirmed its commitment to the French press group after several weeks of silence. In a letter to members of the Supervisory Board and Executive Board and World unveiled by Les Echos, CEO Juan Luis Cebrian, "reaffirms" the "intent to participate alone or with industry partners internationally renowned for recapitalization "of the group. But the Spanish boss believes that "only a thorough audit of the group may enable candidates to refine the position estimate needs to recapitalize the World. And therefore request the postponement of the deadline to Friday, 19 hours to lay a firm offer of recovery.
"A reasonable period until the end of September, should be open to all candidates currently being declared or declare themselves to deepen their audits, discussions with management of group and set them in a position to file ( …) a firm offer, "says the CEO. The group Prisa, which is currently in debt of more than 3 billion is currently carrying out a recapitalization. To save time, Juan Luis Cebrian calls for "reimbursable advances to meet" the urgent need of cash to its World recapitalization.
The World available in the morning
This has to speak, of course, nothing trivial. It comes the same day of the deadline set by the board of the World Bank, Crédit Agricole CIB to candidates to file their préoffres.Without really préoffre, Prisa boss makes it clear his intentions for Le Monde that he wanted to "expand the supply" and "give it to read every day, morning, Monday to Sunday, basing on synergies between the titles of his group (El Pais, head).
At the same time, the trio led by the businessman Matthew Pigasse, Niel and PBA filed a letter of intent listing his commitments and his plans for the group (recapitalization of 80 to 100 million euros charter governance, creation of an ethics committee …). Highly anticipated also a group préoffre Nouvel Observateur had to be filed Wednesday in the day. Is it backed by a partner like Orange, as seemed to think the discussions initiated between the two groups on Tuesday? It was difficult to see clear Wednesday.Alongside its general assembly, the new CEO of Orange, Stéphane Richard, has explained his plan to enter the capital of the world. "Some candidates have asked to be a minority partner, it is not a takeover," he said. This partnership would make sense in his eyes as if the result is "mutual benefits" for both groups. "The Orange could accompany the transition to Digital World", focusing on the Internet subsidiary of the group, Le Monde Interactif.
If Orange confirms his love for Le Monde, other applicants have chosen them to withdraw from the race. After the Swiss group Ringier Tuesday morning, the Italian group L'Espresso has officially given up yesterday to make a takeover bid of the group.
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More rigor. The message sent by the rating agency Fitch to the new British government is clear: "the magnitude of the fiscal challenge is formidable United Kingdom and justifies a strong austerity plan in the medium term." For, if London enjoys a triple-A thanks to its economy "diverse and flexible, its deficit is growing at a pace well above that of other countries enjoying the same note, the agency warns. It reached 11.1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
"The existing plans are not ambitious enough," Judge Fitch, who still welcomes the willingness of the new Liberal-Conservative coalition to act very quickly. Even in London announced new austerity measures amounting to 0.4% of GDP in the form of budget cuts.
Under a new emergency budget to be presented June 22, the government should adopt targets for reducing the deficit more ambitious, Fitch recommends. The new conservative prime minister has already promised gold and years of "suffering" the British people.
"While other European countries are strengthening their plans and rigor that markets are concerned about the sovereign risk in developed countries, the size of the UK deficit is currently estimated for 2011 and failure to return to the 3% deficit the next five years are worrisome, "Fitch alarmed.