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Tears and blood. After a "transition year" due to the hope of a recovery – finalementdouché by the sovereign debt crisis – and waiting for the presidential, the French will have to prepare for the worst. This is essentially what promise the combination of HR, Personnel & Company (E & P), in the 2011 vintage of his note of social conditions. "The scenario of the fall of 2012 may be highly deceptive and folders in the news, as detonators, regardless of the majority that won," predicts Jean-Pierre Basilian, the author.

For him, the implementation of a genuine policy of rigor, at the end of the presidential election, is no longer any doubt. "With the electoral process, the implementation of proposals on the table, the French will put their hopes for change in politics," he warns.But these expectations "may be disappointed" by the weight of economic realities. "It regardless of the majority that exit polls, austerity policies, fiscal restraint, increased direct and indirect taxes that lie ahead," says Jean-Pierre and Basilian, with the key "a challenging progressive "social shock absorbers, they have worked well during the crisis, appear outdated.

Chilling post-election

The question is whether more rigor to the sauce Greek or British, will become a reality in France. "In all dimensions of social protection, changes will need to be committed in the name of debt reduction, competitiveness of our economy and employment," swears E & P. The questions are rather on the acceptability of austerity policies developed low fee cash advance."At what point will the social cost he found unbearable, by which social groups?, Asks Jean-Pierre Basilian. Where will the divide? The foundation of social cohesion will break there? "If the worst is never certain, it is still really far away. Everything will depend in the end, according to the association, "the representation that citizens will be social justice" policy implementation "of the fair contribution of each social group efforts."

The shower post-election may be all the more ice that three major social issues are at the heart of the presidential debates. First employment, "the first concern of the French," associated with the competitiveness of the economy and a target of lower labor costs."The sharp slowdown in growth can have a negative effect on the rate of unemployment figures the next few months should not be good and may approach or exceed 10%," says the association. Second, youth employment and efficiency of the education system to find a solution to "lost to 18.0000" coming out every year of school without a diploma. And third, the preservation of a social protection floor. "For a taxation of contributions? A decrease joint benefits? "Asks E & P. "In any case, we will not avoid the issue of cost and financing," predicts Jean-Pierre Basilian.

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The restaurant may have for their charges. As part of the review of legislation strengthening the rights, protection and consumer information, the National Assembly voted Monday to require an amendment to the professionals to reveal the freshness of their products. These should be systematically identified by an asterisk in the menus, instead of dishes made from frozen food, vacuum-based or canned.

Purpose of the maneuver: to promote "consumer health" and "quality of the restoration" of the tables of the Hexagon, said on its website Fernand Sire, UMP deputy from the Pyrenees-Orientales, which supported the text. For the elected "too many pubs and restaurants now offer the ready-made without anyone being informed," he told Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France.

Consomation specialist and director of Research Center for the Study and Observation of Living Conditions (Credoc), Pascale Hébel finds that the measure is likely to weigh on the business of many restaurants. "The French, especially the elderly, are very attached to the charge, and only a minority is aware of the place of the frozen" in their plates, she said. However, according to Roland Heguy, president of the Trades Union catering and hospitality (UMIH), "the 120,000 catering outlets in France, 20,000 are working with really fresh."

The frozen ostracized

Unlike the director of Credoc, Roland Heguy not worry unduly for the industry: "Unfortunately, he let go, people know they eat frozen food" restaurant. However, he deplored the "suddenness" of the measure, "the lack of dialogue" upstream.Above all, this roundabout way to banish the frozen, "which is not a poison," he insists. For him, "the problem is that there is no differentiation between the professionals who use industrial products, and those who are cooking their dishes with fresh ingredients, but sometimes the freeze" to avoid wasting .

If this argument will not necessarily appeal to health authorities, Roland Heguy also argues that a duty of freshness is already in the state label of "master restorer" created in 2007. "Until now, restaurants have won in 2000, knowing that we have agreed a target of 7500 by 2015," says the president of the UMIH.

To him, the copy is to be reviewed. A meeting of "consultation" has also been programmed with Frédérique Lefebvre.To the Secretary of State for consumption, it will be to "find ways" to implement a device "extremely innovative". For Pascale Hebel, communication about this will have a major impact for the sector. "Pragmatic", it believes that "we must not demonize the semi-prepared or frozen, as they democratize and improve their quality."

For professionals, it will shake to play knowing that the season will be difficult. Comprising 240 stores retail chains and restaurants, the federation Procosa sounded the alarm earlier this month, judging impossible mission to find his activity levels before the crisis next year. After a difficult summer, marked by a decline in sales of its members of more than 4%, the best table on a 1.5% increase for 2012. This amendment "anti-frozen" do not leave indifferent.

"After three years of starvation wages, marked by wage freezes or increases in general very limited, 2012 could confirm the recovery that began this year," said Bruno Rocquemont, responsible for investigating compensation at Mercer France.

According to the survey (1) conducted by the consulting firm in human resources, business plan for most occupational categories increased by 3% (median) budget increase (collective and individual), against 2.5 % in 2011. The exceptions are the workers (+2.8%) and senior (2.9%). But in any case, it would exceed the average inflation of 1.7% in 2012 by the government.

End of the wage freeze

Two major trends. On the one hand an almost complete disappearance of the wage freeze, a measure widely implemented at the height of the crisis.However, 4% of companies plan to freeze the workers and managers.

In addition, the company forecasts reflected the "sacrosanct" rate increase of 3%, which was applied during the years before the crisis erupted instant credit report.

In addition, both groups seem to be emerging. First, the majority, has given the 3% salary increase. A second, more prudent, considering between 2.1% and 2.5%.

The survey was conducted between March and mid-July, ie before the great economic and financial events of the summer (crisis in the euro area, downward revision in growth for 2011 and 2012, falling stock markets …), Mercer, again, questioned 142 of the 329 companies in its original sample.

"Eight out of ten believe that these events will bring them to scale back their budgets for salary review.This reduction could be 0.5 point fall. In contrast, companies planning to date, a wage freeze, are still a small minority, said Bruno Rocquemont. In this context, we have to closely follow the mandatory annual negotiations (NAO), which launched just been given in some societies and that will continue into March. "

(1) survey of 329 companies, mostly French subsidiaries of multinational corporations.

The people of the East Coast of the United States are preparing for a weekend out of the ordinary. In anticipation of Hurricane Irene, the authorities announced palsy or slowing of most means of transport that normally innervate New York Area. Once is not custom, the inhabitants of the Big Apple, including 250,000 living near the coast are being evacuated, will have to live in slow motion.

For security, the three New York airports – JFK, La Guardia and Newark – will be closed Saturday for aircraft arriving at noon (18 hours Paris time). The flights from these airports, however, may take off until further notice. This is an extraordinary disruption to an area that typically concentrates the air flow one of the densest in the world: each year, as many as 100 million passengers pass through this metropolis.This weekend, nearly 8,000 flights should be canceled.

Like most of his counterparts, Air France announced Friday the cancellation of all flights to New York JFK on Saturday and Sunday, while disturbances are waiting on those provided to and from other cities the coast, like Washington, Philadelphia or Boston. The resumption of service, from Monday, could also be laborious and cause further disruption, have also warned the airlines.

Transport suspended

Measure more tangible for the people, public transport will be suspended in the Big Apple this Saturday from noon until probably Monday rush hour guaranteed online payday loans. The subway, buses and railways do not circulate. Motorists have also been asked to leave their cars at home until the alert is lifted.If winds exceed this weekend 96 km / hour, the authorities of the State of New York have also warned they would close the main roads towards the city, and some bridges.

Given the restriction of transportation and possible damage caused by the passing of Irene, the inhabitants were ordered to stockpile water and food in preparation for the weekend. "Water is our product that sells best," noted the retailer Wal-Mart on Friday. Many are those who are armed with power generators in case of power failure.

To address these potential damages, the cost could rise to nearly $ 12 billion according to consulting firm Kinetic Analysis, U.S. authorities are preparing to deploy in new ways.900 National Guardsmen and 2,500 workers in the electricity sector include ready to intervene in case of power failure. All these measures aim to avoid at all costs repeating a scenario to Katrina, the hurricane that was painfully struck New Orleans in 2005.

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Sign that the markets are still very feverish, gold crossed for the first time in its history the bar in 1900 dollars an ounce to more than 1914 dollars exactly. However, according to analyst estimates, the Cac 40 should continue to rise, after gaining 1.14% to 3051.36 points on Monday. Wall Street closed Monday evening while a cautious rebound Asian stock markets advance slowly.

While awaiting the president's speech to the U.S. central bank, Ben Bernanke, Friday, and the publication of the second estimate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter, the same day, the markets are mindful of the situation in Libya where the prospect a regime change seems inevitable with the fall of Colonel Gaddafi after 42 years of reign.

Oil prices retreat slightly

As a result, oil prices were cautious on Tuesday morning.In morning trading, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery fell by 2 cents to 108.34 dollars, after losing 18 cents in early trade. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 27 cents 84.69 dollars.

On the macroeconomic front, the manufacturing PMI for France and the euro area will be published respectively in 9 hours and 10 hours. In the U.S., sales of new homes in July were attendures to 16 hours.

On the corporate side, the energy sector will follow when the regime of Colonel Gaddafi is expected to fall.

Carrefour announced Monday the appointment of Thierry Garnier, currently executive director of distribution group for growth markets, the Executive Director for China and Taiwan, replacing Eric Legros.

In the aftermath of a black day on world financial markets, U.S. equity markets continue to brood. Despite an early trading in the green, the indices fro significantly negative territory 30 minutes after opening, despite the announcement earlier this afternoon in U.S. unemployment figures better than expected for the month of July. A 16h Paris time, the Dow Jones falling 0.48% to 11,328 points, the Nasdaq lost 1.46% more frankly to 219 points and the S & P was down 0.69% to 1191 points.

A move followed by other European stock markets. In Paris, the political mobilization against the bear market of Europe, however, allows to limit the drop in European indexes.

The employment figures dictate trend

In this context the assumption of a recession in the U.S. or the world, is today one of the main fears of the markets, the announcement of a significant improvement in job creation last month seems calm people down on Wall Street Friday after a collapse in U.S. up over 4% yesterday. In recent weeks, disappointing publications on the state of the U.S. economy had, in fact, chained, challenging the idea of ​​resumption of the world's largest economy. This publication confirms the figures released Wednesday by ADP, reports of more new jobs than expected for the month of July.

At 21 hours the numbers of U.S. consumer credit for the month of June will end this week full of macroeconomic data.

Oil and euro pressure

Oil prices climbed hesitantly at the opening Friday in New York, despite the employment figures better than expected, as the market wondered if it would be sufficient to support the demand for crude in a very fragile economic environment . On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery was trading at 87.04 dollars, up 41 cents from the previous day.

This concern also weighs on the currency front, the euro was trying to rebound against the dollar but remained under pressure from macroeconomic concerns.To 15 hours in Paris, the European currency was worth 1.4224 dollars against 1.4106 dollars on Thursday night, after falling to 1 payday loans for self employed.4055 dollars in early Asian trade, its lowest for three and a half weeks.

AIG, GM and Procter & Gamble publish their accounts

On the corporate side, the semi-annual publications still dominate the news on Friday.

Thursday evening after market, the insurer AIG (-0.23% to 26.34 dollars) announced a return to the green of its accounts in the second quarter, with net earnings of $ 1.84 billion over the period, against a loss of $ 2.7 billion a year earlier. Per share, net income totaled $ 1 ($ 0.69 after tax, against $ 0.92 expected by analysts).

At the same time, and its first quarterly since its IPO on May 19, LinkedIn (-2.27% to 93.36 dollars) was positively surprised markets by announcing a turnover more than doubled the second quarter to 121 million dollars (120 euros) and net profit (4.5 million), where analysts expected a loss.

GM Motors (1.27% to 26.32 dolars) Thursday reported quarterly results exceeded expectations, with a near doubling of profits over the period.

Procter & Gamble (1.78% to 60.64 dollars) released before market on Friday for the fourth quarter of fiscal offset, net income up 15% to $ 2.51 billion.Of 2010-2011, so it shows a net profit of 11.79 Annual Statement billion, down 7% from the previous year.

Viacom (3.55% to 53.17 dollars), the parent company of MTV and Comedy Central, has reported a rise than expected in earnings thanks to strong revenue growth in advertising Cable and license agreements with websites. Its quarterly results (Q3) increased to $ 574 million against 432 million

Bank of America (1.70% to 8.98 dollars) is highly exposed to the most fragile countries in the euro zone, according to a document from the bank. The group said exposure to the tune of $ 16.7 billion (11.8 billion euros) in total to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain in June 30Management has indicated in a document submitted to the regulatory authorities that its losses could reach up to legal $ 2.3 billion in addition to the provisions already passed for this purpose.

After a week marked by the beginning of a very nervous investors, the Paris stock market is still under pressure on Tuesday, still confused about how to react against the agreement reached Sunday night in the United States on raising the ceiling of the debt. The CAC 40 was down at the opening of 0.52% to 3569.26 points before giving further 0.45% to 3571.86 points in mid-session.

The benchmark index of the Paris this morning reached a new session low of the year at 3553.54 points. Yesterday, he finished in a very sharp decline (-2.27%), despite an optimistic start of the session after Barack Obama announced that a compromise was finally reached between Republicans and Democrats on the measures to be taken to reduce 'U.S. debt, after weeks of negotiations.The House of Representatives has also tonight approved the agreement, which will, from this Tuesday evening, subject to the U.S. Senate.

The Cac 40 was finished on Monday, under the 3600 points, to 3588.05 points, the lowest since August 2010. In addition to the uncertainty on the adoption by Congress of a plan considered "a minima", investors were frightened by the publication of an indicator of U.S. industrial activity is very disappointing. What revived fears about the strength of the growth of world's largest economy.

Therefore account for these concerns again the minds of investors on Tuesday, while voting in the night by the House of Representatives from the increased ceiling of U.S. debt relieves some of the final adoption of the plan.The Senate vote, expected on Tuesday to 18 hours, should not influence the market today.

In addition, rating agencies have not yet given their opinion on the common ground found in extremis by the elected Democrats and Republicans, especially regarding proposed budget cuts to reduce the deficit (2.5 trillion dollars over 10 years) . This raises the specter of a possible degradation of the maximum always assigned to the U.S. sovereign debt (AAA).

Elsewhere in Europe these concerns also influence the trend. In London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.56% to 5742.24 points while in Frankfurt the Dax moves ever in the 7000 points mark, after the results poorly received by the market.Metro disappointed.

The long-awaited economic figures

Beyond the issue of debt, new macroeconomic indicators are expected across the Atlantic on Tuesday and could more severely curb the trend. At 14:30 will be unveiled including the revenues and expenditures of U.S. households for the month of June while vehicle sales for the month of July should be reported late this evening.

Meanwhile, in Europe, producer prices remained stable in June, having increased by almost 6% year on year, according to data released Tuesday by the EU statistics office Eurostat. In May, prices fell 0.2% after 19 months of consecutive increases (5.9% increase).

On the currency front, the markets vary little, still mixed on how to deal with an agreement reached in the snatch.The euro was virtually unchanged against the dollar on Tuesday morning after its decline yesterday, and while the vote on raising the debt ceiling is expected in the U.S. Senate. In mid-session, the European currency was worth 1.42 dollars, a slight decline of 0.36%.

The side of the barrel, and the day after a volatile session marked by swings of the agreement on U.S. oil prices rose slightly off again Tuesday morning in electronic trading in Asia. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in September yielded 0.85% to 94.08 dollars.

As for values ​​to follow

Alcatel-Lucent rebounds strongly, leading the CAC 40 in mid-session (1.56% to 2.66 euros), while Schneider Electric last displayed index (-4.05% to 96 euros) .

Early publications of the banks, BNP bounces in mid-session

The pace of publication of results of companies this week is calmer. Note, however, launched the quarterly publications of the major banks, with BNP Paribas, which reported this morning results below expectations. The first French bank missed the consensus in the second quarter due to supply and charges (560 million) related to the background of aid to Greece and a weaker than expected growth in income.Consequence of this disappointment, the stock has fallen sharply this morning, before recovering in mid-term: shortly after noon, BNP Paribas 0.56% clawing at 43.92 euros, Societe Generale advance of 1.35% to 33.75 euros (bank accounts will detail on Wednesday), Natixis wins 0.48%, to 3.12 euros, but sells Axa 0.51% to 12.74% (results on Thursday).

NYSE-Euronext (-0.89% at 22, 75 euros). The exchange operator has issued Tuesday a quarterly net profit down 16% to $ 154 million (106.83 million euros), reflecting a decline in trading volumes in equity markets and derivatives markets in New York and Europe.

Schneider Electric (-4.13% to 95.092 euros) announced Tuesday the resignation of Anand Mahindra's term as a member of the Supervisory Board due to potential conflicts of interest between the French and Indian group Mahindra & Mahindra.These conflicts could "arise from the development of these two groups in the distribution business in India," said in a statement the French specialist of electrical equipment.

The specialty chemical Arkema (-3.18% to 64.19 euros) should be very surrounded on Tuesday after the group announced an increase of 33% of its EBITDA (EBITDA) quarterly, which reaches a record 320 million euros.Thierry group provides the Hénaff for 2011 an increase of about 30% of its EBITDA.

EADS (-1.71% to 23.54 euros), despite having a large cash flow, it does not squander his money by overpaying their prey, said Monday its director of acquisitions in an interview to Reuters, after announcing a fourth acquisition this year for the European aerospace giant.

HSBC (2.01% to 7.09 euros) the British bank, one of the first in Europe, will hire 15,000 people in emerging markets over the next three years, said a spokesman Tuesday, the day after the announcement of the removal of 30 000 jobs worldwide.

Gameloft (-0.21% to 4.74 euros) confirmed late Monday its growth targets in sales and margins in 2011 after a consolidated turnover up 11% to 37.4 million euros the second quarter.The weak dollar has had a negative impact on sales, said the publisher of mobile games.

Note that DnxCorp (ex-Dreamnex, -1.99% to 19.75 euros) will unveil its after market sales for the second quarter.

A true campaign speeches. Cambodia before the French together in a vast lounge of the Sofitel Hotel in Phnom Penh, the prime minister Saturday launched a violent charge against the left, without ever naming it: "Those who believe that the idea that one could 'de-globalization' history and the comfort of a domestic policy alone, without external stress, maintain a dangerous illusion, "he said, while some voices in the PS and the Greens in particular to call for ecological and social conversion of the production system. "Globalization is a fact, not a hypothesis," has dealt François Fillon, taking the opportunity to refine their profile politician "lucid" which tells the "truth" to the French.

"You who live in the Asian continent, you know what is meant by globalization and the (…) changes it brought with it," he said to an audience that the UMP would attract and retain the perspective the presidential election of 2012 (hence the creation Wednesday of a Secretary of State for French nationals abroad, at the ministerial reshuffle).

Fillon promised to fight against the risk of decline

The prime minister also criticized the "lack of responsibility" for "those who advocate, under a mask of generosity, the return to funding expensive." "Between the spring of election promises and fall of the exercise of power, the reality is responsible for breaking down dead leaves of inconsistent programs," he added, lyrical faxless cash advances.

While calling for more than "partisanship," the Prime Minister continued his charge against the advocates of protectionism. "Those who want to get France out of the euro, if unfortunately they came to business, they would endanger our economy, our social model, in the name of a false idea of ​​national sovereignty", he attacked. Against these "lax or populist proposals" which "we pose the risk of decline," Fillon promised he would fight "all (his) forces."

While the UMP is constantly mock the PS program considered "dated," Fillon drove the nail in praising the reforms carried out in four years: a guarantee "of international adjustment," he praised " we have continued to act to reinvigorate our economy, to capitalize on innovation to secure our social model, to contain our costs, "he added."None of these reforms has not been easy, he said. But I am convinced that their legitimacy will prevail, because the French feel that the new world will be uncompromising for nations that choose the easy (…) With the approach of elections, disputes conducive to systematic and utopias of all kinds, we will maintain our line of truth and realism ambitious. "

(From our special correspondent in Cambodia)

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As announced in Le Figaro, the agreement on supplementary pensions signed last spring is unfavorable to executives who have raised several children, so much so that the CFE-CGC, the union executive has decided to attack the text justice.

The agreement signed in March after lengthy negotiations in effect alters the rules of pension bonus if families "many." From 1 January next year, the increase will be only 10% whatever the number of children cared for by the frame from three. The rule still in force today is much more favorable since the pensions of executives can be increased by 8% to 24% depending on the number of children.

Cap

Adjusted parallel, the amount of increase is now capped at 1,000 euros per year. Emmanuel Grimaud consulting firm optimization retirement Maxims, asked on Europe 1 this morning, made the calculation of the shortfall.For an executive who has had four children and affects 2700 euros monthly pension, the bonus is 2000 euros per year today. With the new rules, it does affect more than 800 euro mark, that is to say 1200 euros less each year. If we relate this loss to the number of years spent in retirement, 25 years on average, the loss of purchasing power reached 27,000 euros says the expert.

Emmanuel Grimaud said that once, future retired executives must make it their calculations, especially if born before July 1951.In some cases it may be more interesting for them to liquidate their retirement before the end of the year rather than waiting for the entry into force of the new text, and this even if they have not paid all quarters necessary for the full rate.

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It's been five years since the U.S. housing bubble deflates, after swelling for fourteen years. The consequences of this reversal are still stopping the economy and financial system of the United States poor credit personal loans.

Click on image to enlarge.