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A shock exceptional in its scope but not its duration. Coface, which examines the risks of outstanding companies, announced Monday at a symposium on the country risk, the end of the credit crisis. While recalling the unprecedented nature of this recession, the worst post-war related to the bankruptcy of Lehman. Between its 2007 peak and the lowest point in 2009, the global economy fell by 6.1 points, two times the oil crisis of the 1980s or the collapse of the dotcom bubble.

"There is a strong correlation between the curve of defaults and that of economic growth, said President Francois David. For six months we see an improvement in creditworthiness of companies. "After rising 19% in the first half of 2009, the total payment incidents has decreased by 40% over the last six months.With this improvement, Coface has revised upwards its ratings, while it had conducted several waves of decommissioning throughout the crisis. Note that unlike traditional agencies, which follow the sovereign debt, the insurance company is only interested in credit risk business. The improvement is true for most industrialized countries. The A2 rating of the United States is no longer under negative watch while France, Germany and Japan, in particular, came under positive watch.

Household debt

But if the bulk of the storm passed, many clouds darken the sky of the recovery. It is primarily the weakness of private demand, which remains constrained by the debt ratio and savings rates, and deterioration of the labor market."The key to growth lies in the particular behavior of the American consumer, accounting for 18% of global GDP," notes Francois David.

Another black spot, the rate of industrial capacity utilization remains limited, especially slowing business investment. "The recovery in 2010 will depend even public spending," says the chief economist at Coface, Yves Zlotowski. With the risk of digging a little more deficits. The situation is particularly alarming for the "pigs" – Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain – where the debt has increased the most between 2007 and 2011. "The markets could force them to implement budget cuts, which contribute more to the recession," said Yves Zlotowski. The economist is also concerned about overheating in China and the rebound of stock markets, including commodities, stronger and faster than the real economy.Coface expects global growth in 2010 of 2.7%, driven by emerging markets (5.3%) against 1.4% for developed countries.

These days, advocates of fiscal orthodoxy seem to score points on the supporters of a massive debt. The president ruled between 25 and 50 billion euros will be invested in projects that build the future of France. That does not mean that the amount of the "great debt" will be too high.

First difference: the Elysee account used to finance part of the "future costs", public aid granted at the beginning of the crisis with French banks, which are paying off. Or 13 billion euros back into the coffers of the state and which will therefore be recycled. While the state had to borrow funds on the market a year ago before re-lending to banks …

Cofinancing

Second difference: The government has always been clear, most projects will be financed by the state and privately.To allow access to the Internet at high speed throughout, for example, the loan will finance a large part of the deployment of a huge network of fiber optic telecom operators but will also put their hands in their pockets . And their "contribution" could well be recorded in the 25 to 50 milliards displayed, provides a government source. Who goes: "It is true, ultimately, he could not keep a lot of money to borrow." Perhaps no more than 15 billion euros …

"Do not the French credibility differs from that of Germany", explained in any case François Fillon on Thursday at the World.

In other words, Matignon would prevent total borrowings French (to fund all deficits, "great debt" included) than in 2010, that of German broadcasts.

And to avoid a surge in borrowing rates at which Bercy. The Treasury figures the additional borrowing capacity of France "between 20 and 30 billion euros", said the Premier.

Regardless, the executive does not repeat does not all the time that the important thing is not to set the amount of the loan but to define priorities for the future?

"Borrowing" Focus on new technologies and defense "

"Accoyer:" The prime minister has whistled the end of recreation "on the loan

While wrapping up the M6 leg dams the World Cup between France and Eire, war leaders among leaders TF1 resulted in the victory of Nonce Paolini. Axel Duroux, former Chief Executive of RTL radio, designated as a number one in June, left the group. "TF1 and Axel Duroux decided to separate by mutual agreement for differing views on the strategic conduct of the business," said a statement from the group.

Martin Bouygues, the main shareholder, has settled the dispute between the two men. He would not disavow Nonce Paolini, one of his followers, former HRD TF1 before heading Bouygues Telecom.

Axel Duroux had a contract specifying that he should be appointed deputy CEO in November, as that would give her signature on all subjects.But since the arrival of Axel Duroux in at TF1, September 15, was war. For nearly three weeks, he tried to take control of all subjects, as the title of number one a would permit. But each time, Nonce Paolini reminded him that he was the ultimate decisionmaker.

The conflict has crystallized around the information. When Axel Duroux wanted to take the reins, Nonce Paolini has countered that the information was a reserved area. Axel Duroux has demanded that the dispute be resolved before Martin Bouygues, the main shareholder. The latter received the two men and was momentarily appeased the conflict in distributing roles to Axel Duroux, content management, and Nonce Paolini, one of the group.

Disagreement on strategy group

For fifteen days, sharing worked, Nonce Paolini not participating in various committees on the antenna.Until the famous seminary of Chantilly, a week ago. Faced with hundreds of executives, both men have erupted their divisions, as reported in The Correspondence of the press. In Nonce Paolini, who believed that the hearing of the chain had reached low water mark to 27% audience share, Axel Duroux countered that it should not be content and he had to go to the reconquest of 30%. The unease deepened when the executives in attendance expressed by voting their disapproval of the group's strategy. Jean-Pierre Owens, presenter of "13 hours", a union representative and member of the Board of TF1, has bitterly complained that there is more talk of strategy and content. In the state of permanent waving guerrilla group, a new incident took place early in the week. Nonce Paolini has come Laurence Ferrari, presenter of 20 hours, without warning Axel Duroux.The latter replied that he had, according to arbitration by Martin Bouygues, control over information.

The bottom line is that Axel Duroux has been called to the rescue in June 2009, when the chain was at its worst. But the anger of Nicolas de Tavernost and German leaders to RTL Group was forced to his notice. It's happened three months later at TF1. Meanwhile, the group had spent a great summer, and his return audiovisual confirmed that recovery of hearing. Furthermore, the advertising market, very depressed in the first half, rebounded in September. Axel Duroux had lost its role of savior. The epilogue was played Friday morning.

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