• Why would banks they need public money?

Two potential pitfalls they face. The first is the complete drying of resources: banks need to borrow in the markets to finance their activities.But the debt crisis of state in Europe increasingly discourages lenders. The foreclosure market in which victims were successively facilities Greek, Irish and Portuguese, and Spanish and Italian, now seems to win the entire euro area. While the banks are adapting, borrowing more short term, "cutting" their positions to save their cash and, finally, by obtaining new money to the European Central Bank. But these solutions are not sustainable and some European banks now find themselves in a situation of great fragility of the front of the "liquidity".

The second threat to the banks, the losses they may have to cash because of the economic slowdown and the crisis of the State debts, the most immediate threat is that of the Greek debt.According to the German press, Berlin also preparing a plan to support public financial sector, activated in case of bankruptcy of Greece.

• All banks will they need help?

It is likely that some banks will need help. The challenge will be to contain the fire. In the current climate of stress, the announcement of a rescue may create a systemic crisis, investors no longer completing lend to any institution, investors preferring to withdraw their assets. In 2008, states had implemented plans with extensive, the mass drowning in the case of banks the most vulnerable payday loan. This time, large swarm may be against-productive because it gave credence to the thesis is prepared throughout the banking sector to a major shock on sovereign debt."As if the policies were sending a signal that they do not believe in their own measures" to rescue the eurozone, fell last week the boss of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann.

• What form of aid could take?

For banks in need, the ideal would be to recapitalize private funds. In late July, two Greek banks have also announced a merger made possible by a cash injection … Qatar. But, with few exceptions, European states will be well on the front line. This poses two problems. The first is financial: some countries already weakened may be difficult to bring in bank balance sheets at times equivalent to their GDP. The solution could come from the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The European Agreement of 21 July – which is not yet approved by national parliaments – provided he can assume this mission.

The second issue is political: public opinion will they accept to "save" the banks again? "Only if they pay a lot more expensive that in 2008 the capital provided to them and the money they are paid," says a policy that "a justified rescue also new requirements for remuneration, renewal management and separation of activities. "

• French banks are they on the front line?

French banks, which had pretty well through the crisis of 2008-2009, are more turbulent than in 2011. Their expansion in Europe, particularly Greece and Italy, has become a weakness.They are also consuming enough liquidity in the markets for two reasons: their "universal" model makes significant players in investment banking and market structure of savings has offset it to the insurance life and mutual funds rather than bank balance sheets. To view added real or perceived weaknesses of each: a large dependence on market funding at Dexia, a reputation started and strong market positions at Societe Generale, a Greek subsidiary Crédit Agricole …

"This is a very special event for me," confessed Rousseff, born in Belo Horizonte and whose father worked for Mannesmann, the ancestor of Vallourec in Brazil since the French group bought in 2000 the activities of the German inventor of the technology of seamless tube in the nineteenth century. Dilma Rousseff's visit is a nod to the French-Japanese investment of 2 billion euros, thanks to which, in his view, the added value derived from the iron ore Minas Gerais is one of the leading producers a reality at last."Brazil does not want to be considered as a raw material supplier to the world," said Philippe Crouzet, the CEO of Vallourec. The French group has made Brazil a strategic basis. It has the distinction of being integrated with its own raw materials as it has its own iron ore mine and a huge plantation of eucalyptus trees whose rapid growth provides power to the steel coal wood.

Vallourec already produces a quarter of his hits in Brazil and there will soon employ 7,700 people. Plant Jeceaba increase its total production capacity by 10%. The site – 250 acres and about 2 km in length of the blast furnace to finishing shops – is a measure of the target market: VSB will be dedicated to the export of products for the exploration and production of hydrocarbons payday loan lenders.However, investment by oil and gas companies have never been higher. And their needs are ever more technical, as it must look deeper black gold, or in extreme conditions. The new plant should therefore take place in the South-South trade, serving clients in West Africa and the Middle East.

Petroleum potential

Its commissioning will enable the existing plant, VMB, focusing on the Brazilian domestic market: infrastructure, especially as we approach the World Cup and the Olympics, mechanical, automobile Vallourec … but mostly gets in the wheel Petrobras, client history. "Our investment decision in March 2007, spoke before Petrobras does not reveal the end of 2007, the discovery of its giant fields présalifères. At the time, this discovery was often met with skepticism.Today, Petrobras is thought able to produce 5 to 6 million barrels per day by 2020, "said Philippe Crouzet. The potential 50 billion barrels of black gold hidden away Petrobras offshore Brazil, within 7 to 8 km of water, rock, and especially salt. An obvious market for pipes and joints upscale Vallourec, tested by the extraordinary conditions of pressure and temperature.

"Petrobras is planning to invest 224 billion dollars in the coming years, more than any staff" has stressed Rousseff. The rise of Brazil as a major oil producer is an opportunity for Vallourec. As is the U.S. energy revolution: the group is building a U.S. factory dedicated to market exploitation of shale gas and go into production in late 2012.

Operators are struggling to recover from their emotions after the new European stock markets plummeting and U.S. Thursday. This morning, Asian stock market sent negative signals with indices in very sharp drop.This bad mood due to a surge in concern about the state of the global economy, reinforced by poor indicators of the Atlantic. Bad index measuring the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity in the region, lower sales of existing homes in July, new jobless claims rising again during the second week of August … All signs of the apparent stagnation of growth in the United States.

Concerns about U.S. growth fears add to the debt crisis in Europe, European banks are the first to bear the brunt. In its Thursday edition, The Wall Street Journal reported on fears the U.S. Federal Reserve on the liquidity of European banks.And for the first time since February, the European Central Bank (ECB) has given a major dollar loan to a European bank, whose identity was not revealed. An action that reinforces doubts about the ability of banks to refinance.

Morgan Stanley has added his two cents to panic, explaining that she perceived the United States and Europe as "dangerously close to recession." The President of the European Union, Herman van Rompuy, tried Thursday to calm the mind by ensuring that there was "no new recession" in sight. And this morning, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping has reaffirmed that the U.S. economy was "resilient". In vain.

"The bears are back"

"The bears (pessimistic players, ie) are back in force that night, after disappointing U.S. economic indicators and renewed fears about the stability of European banks, which prompted investors to push the button sales," said Ben Potter, an analyst at IG Markets in Australia. "There seems to be getting ready for a weekend very ugly, with a market dominated once again by fear and panic," he added.

Gold reached a new record Friday morning in Asia, to 1,837.50 dollars per ounce, due to the concern. And oil, which fell 6% in New York yesterday, continues to fall in morning trading.A barrel of "light sweet crude" for September delivery lost 1.69 dollars to 80.69 dollars while that of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery gave 68 cents to 106.31 dollars.

No significant indicator that could reverse the trend, are expected on Friday.

Values ​​to follow

The banking sector

European financial stocks, which had been rolled by a renewed tensions in the interbank market and concerns about the short-term refinancing of the banks were still under attack this morning.BNP Paribas (-3.01% to 33.18 euros), Natixis (0.97% to 2.924 euros), Credit Agricole (-0.40% to 6.203 euros), Societe Generale (-0.46% at 21 , 50 euros) and AXA (-1.42% to 10.405 euros), however, have erased some of their losses in the afternoon.

Danone: -2.21% to 45.835 euros

Nestlé, the group became a favorite activity for infant formula, Wyeth, Pfizer subsidiary, valued at approximately ten billion dollars (seven billion euros), officials said a source familiar with the bank.

Technip: -0.98% to 59.38 euros

The French engineering group said it had received a letter of intent on the part of the American oil company Anadarko for the construction of an offshore platform for the Gulf of Mexico.

Rating agencies cultivate secrecy around these appointments called "rating committees." The heart of their power: analysts will decide the fate of nations by voting financial, away from the public on the future of the country note. No list of participants has not been released. However, the assessment can set the tone to the market.Law and internal regulations require many investors to buy or sell some of their shares according to the decisions of the trio of major Anglo-Saxon agencies Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch.

The theory and practice

At the beginning of the procedure leading to the convening of a committee must be an event that could have an impact on the rating of a country, a new government or the publication of statistics. That's the theory. In practice, agencies are not locked in their ivory towers. "The noise of the markets or the hype, the phenomena of modes outside the agency also cause internal discussions that may cause the reopening of cases," says a former senior analyst at Moody's.

To prepare for a summit meeting, the analyst in charge of the target country meets members of the tax administration.Once or twice a year in general, often in a crisis. He did not have access to more information than large investors also regularly received by the authorities. Following a strict methodology and specific to each agency, he wrote a memo and draft a proposal for the "conf call." On the day, it will have to convince between 4 and 20 of his colleagues, a figure which varies depending on the size of the country but also … each holiday, a former gliding.

One man, one vote

One man, one vote: in principle, democratic rule prevails in rating committees. In practice, less glorious. Clan wars and other struggles for influence can disrupt the debate. As in any large company. "It can heat from analysts," says Pierre Cailleteau, ex-head of sovereign ratings at Moody's, now adviser at Lazard.For example, he says, "we were very divided about Greece last year. We had some very important debates internally. "Moody's, which was the first to lower the rating of Athens in 2009, then sharply deteriorated four notches, out of season.

In case of disagreement, how to find a majority? Standard & Poor's has found the solution: the committees are always in odd numbers. Then the strict methodology of the agency under discussion. And, theoretically, the great leader is there to calm things down. "In some cases, the director may have a strong grip on the committee," says Norbert Gaillard, specialist rating agencies *. Analysts may come under pressure, admits to spell Pierre Cailleteau: "We arrived during the session to ask an analyst to reconsider its vote, given the dominant position on the committee."Moody's, the bylaws stipulates, however, to limit the pressure, the lowest in the hierarchy and a vote in the first analyst to appeal a decision.

Subjective criteria

Still, the year-end bonus are set by the Area Manager, at Moody's in particular. The criteria are multiple, subjective: the variable compensation of an analyst depends on the work of presenting and representing the firm on the outside, the frequency of updating of countries covered, or the level of the analyst. "There are good and less good," says Pierre Cailleteau, which concluded: "It is I who stood out on bonuses." Moody's says

The former analyst, who left his practice in 2008, said: "The reports became confrontational, the atmosphere would grow over the independence of opinion. This is one reason I left. "And asks: "Given the importance given to them, is it not problematic that the agencies do not communicate about the independence of their analysts?"

In the end, the committee's decision is published, with an argument, in a press release. But no mention of voting results, the agencies do not want to reveal internal divisions. We do not know if the note of the United States has been lowered with a broad consensus. Or with a voice apart.

Agencies to staff shortages

"Agencies do not have the resources corresponding to the importance of financial regulations and investors give them-and they give themselves," lamented a former Moody's. Standard & Poor's, the largest agency in the world, the Wall Street Journal has only 70 to 80 analysts, juniors and seniors, covering 126 countries.Result, "every senior analyst is responsible for an average of 6 to 10 countries, shows the former analyst. When I was at the International Monetary Fund, an economist focused exclusively on one country. "

Same thing during visits to the Ministries of Finance of the State. Former Moody's drives the point home: "At the IMF, the missions are conducted on site by five and last 15 days. Moody's, we were two, and the visit lasted two to three days. "In Fitch's rating committees collect a minimum of four analysts. At most, 20 people participated, but it is very rare. Contacted by lefigaro.fr, Moody's would not say how many senior analysts it employs.

Rating agencies could afford to recruit: profitability is very high. Moody's expects a gross margin between 38 and 40% in 2011.The past year, Fitch was more than half of revenues (58%) and the Standard & Poor's to 43% on the only first three months of 2011.

* Norbert Gaillard is the author of "The rating agencies", Éditions La Découverte, 2010

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The benchmark index of the Paris this morning reached a new session low of the year at 3553.54 points. Yesterday, he finished in a very sharp decline (-2.27%), despite an optimistic start of the session after Barack Obama announced that a compromise was finally reached between Republicans and Democrats on the measures to be taken to reduce 'U.S. debt, after weeks of negotiations.The House of Representatives has also tonight approved the agreement, which will, from this Tuesday evening, subject to the U.S. Senate.

The Cac 40 was finished on Monday, under the 3600 points, to 3588.05 points, the lowest since August 2010. In addition to the uncertainty on the adoption by Congress of a plan considered "a minima", investors were frightened by the publication of an indicator of U.S. industrial activity is very disappointing. What revived fears about the strength of the growth of world's largest economy.

Therefore account for these concerns again the minds of investors on Tuesday, while voting in the night by the House of Representatives from the increased ceiling of U.S. debt relieves some of the final adoption of the plan.The Senate vote, expected on Tuesday to 18 hours, should not influence the market today.

In addition, rating agencies have not yet given their opinion on the common ground found in extremis by the elected Democrats and Republicans, especially regarding proposed budget cuts to reduce the deficit (2.5 trillion dollars over 10 years) . This raises the specter of a possible degradation of the maximum always assigned to the U.S. sovereign debt (AAA).

Elsewhere in Europe these concerns also influence the trend. In London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.56% to 5742.24 points while in Frankfurt the Dax moves ever in the 7000 points mark, after the results poorly received by the market.Metro disappointed.

The long-awaited economic figures

Beyond the issue of debt, new macroeconomic indicators are expected across the Atlantic on Tuesday and could more severely curb the trend. At 14:30 will be unveiled including the revenues and expenditures of U.S. households for the month of June while vehicle sales for the month of July should be reported late this evening.

Meanwhile, in Europe, producer prices remained stable in June, having increased by almost 6% year on year, according to data released Tuesday by the EU statistics office Eurostat. In May, prices fell 0.2% after 19 months of consecutive increases (5.9% increase).

On the currency front, the markets vary little, still mixed on how to deal with an agreement reached in the snatch.The euro was virtually unchanged against the dollar on Tuesday morning after its decline yesterday, and while the vote on raising the debt ceiling is expected in the U.S. Senate. In mid-session, the European currency was worth 1.42 dollars, a slight decline of 0.36%.

The side of the barrel, and the day after a volatile session marked by swings of the agreement on U.S. oil prices rose slightly off again Tuesday morning in electronic trading in Asia. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in September yielded 0.85% to 94.08 dollars.

As for values ​​to follow

Alcatel-Lucent rebounds strongly, leading the CAC 40 in mid-session (1.56% to 2.66 euros), while Schneider Electric last displayed index (-4.05% to 96 euros) .

Early publications of the banks, BNP bounces in mid-session

The pace of publication of results of companies this week is calmer. Note, however, launched the quarterly publications of the major banks, with BNP Paribas, which reported this morning results below expectations. The first French bank missed the consensus in the second quarter due to supply and charges (560 million) related to the background of aid to Greece and a weaker than expected growth in income.Consequence of this disappointment, the stock has fallen sharply this morning, before recovering in mid-term: shortly after noon, BNP Paribas 0.56% clawing at 43.92 euros, Societe Generale advance of 1.35% to 33.75 euros (bank accounts will detail on Wednesday), Natixis wins 0.48%, to 3.12 euros, but sells Axa 0.51% to 12.74% (results on Thursday).

NYSE-Euronext (-0.89% at 22, 75 euros). The exchange operator has issued Tuesday a quarterly net profit down 16% to $ 154 million (106.83 million euros), reflecting a decline in trading volumes in equity markets and derivatives markets in New York and Europe.

Schneider Electric (-4.13% to 95.092 euros) announced Tuesday the resignation of Anand Mahindra's term as a member of the Supervisory Board due to potential conflicts of interest between the French and Indian group Mahindra & Mahindra.These conflicts could "arise from the development of these two groups in the distribution business in India," said in a statement the French specialist of electrical equipment.

The specialty chemical Arkema (-3.18% to 64.19 euros) should be very surrounded on Tuesday after the group announced an increase of 33% of its EBITDA (EBITDA) quarterly, which reaches a record 320 million euros.Thierry group provides the Hénaff for 2011 an increase of about 30% of its EBITDA.

EADS (-1.71% to 23.54 euros), despite having a large cash flow, it does not squander his money by overpaying their prey, said Monday its director of acquisitions in an interview to Reuters, after announcing a fourth acquisition this year for the European aerospace giant.

HSBC (2.01% to 7.09 euros) the British bank, one of the first in Europe, will hire 15,000 people in emerging markets over the next three years, said a spokesman Tuesday, the day after the announcement of the removal of 30 000 jobs worldwide.

Gameloft (-0.21% to 4.74 euros) confirmed late Monday its growth targets in sales and margins in 2011 after a consolidated turnover up 11% to 37.4 million euros the second quarter.The weak dollar has had a negative impact on sales, said the publisher of mobile games.

Note that DnxCorp (ex-Dreamnex, -1.99% to 19.75 euros) will unveil its after market sales for the second quarter.

The rating agency also advanced a weak growth of Spain and fiscal slippages in some areas of the country, adding that it would present risks, burdens on efforts to reduce deficits, which have recently been undertaken by Madrid .

Highlighting the challenges that the Spanish government will face for fiscal consolidation and improving the fiscal situation of the Spanish provinces, Moody's has given the banking regulator Spanish Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria (FROB) a rating Aa2, providing a possible degradation of the latter in the future.

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The Anglo-Dutch company Shell is at the top of this sad track record, with no fewer than 17 leaks "important" or "major" reported. Brent Charlie platform's alone has seven leaks that have escaped 4.9 tons of gas, of which 4.6 tonnes April 26, 2010, which resulted in a suspension of production.The Guardian notes that last Friday, the HSE has threatened to stop work on Brent Charlie. Shell has already stopped exporting oil from this platform and with three more to address safety issues.

With 5.4 tons of oil and gas spilled in two years, French Total heels Shell. Other companies are involved, such as Danish Maersk and Talisman Canada, and the BP already convicted for his role in the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico in March 2010.

"The tip of the iceberg"

During this disaster, other oil companies had assured that such an explosion could not occur on their facilities cheap pay day loans. "Safety is, was and will always be our number one priority. This is our core value, "yet assured in November 2010 Peter Voser, chief executive of Shell.But the figures published by The Guardian seriously undermine these claims and even the importance that companies attach to the security of their facilities.

Leaks reported by operators would, moreover, that "the tip of the iceberg," according to the log information. Condition of anonymity, employees say, in fact, a "code informal" drives them to silence the accident for fear of losing their jobs. Since each stop represents a loss of production, companies prefer to ignore the incident …. sometimes verges and disasters. "We were very, very close on several occasions, said Jake Molloy, general secretary of the union workers in the North Sea OILC. It is sometimes more a matter of luck than good management. Some companies do not care. Because of high oil prices, they are cutting back costs.Some have already been prosecuted. "

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The period was marked by a rich news – the announcement of the death of Osama bin Laden in early May to the "DSK affair", to Roland Garros in the sports section. The previous months have been rich in events (revolutions Arab war in Libya), many users began to take their habits on news sites. A favorable environment which has benefited all media.But, "covering a wide range of topics, Le Figaro was able to reach a wide audience," Bertrand analysis Gie, New Media Director Figaro.

Fourth in the ranking falls to the site free 20 Minutes (5.79 million), followed by the Nouvel Observateur (5.79 million) which launched its space over the period participatory "The Plus". First "pure player" of information, The Post comes in 17th position with nearly 3 million unique visitors. The video sharing site Dailymotion has met, as for him, 2.47 million unique users on its news channels.

In other words, the United States are on the verge of bankruptcy. Given the urgency of the situation, the Treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, has given a stay of 30 days to allow Congress to reach agreement with the White House. They have until August 2nd to negotiate a compromise, Republicans in Congress will not agree to vote on raising the debt ceiling until the government has not implemented an austerity budget.The United States shackle in effect three years of deficit exceeding 10% and no concrete and credible program of spending cuts are envisaged. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF, the savings plan of 39 billion delivered on April 8 is "insufficient".

Barack Obama has set a goal of reducing the U.S. budget deficit of 4000 billion dollars over the next twelve years. It sets the fiscal deficit to 2.5% of GDP in 2015, and wants it to be achieved by three-quarters of declines in spending.Objectives, but no clear way to reach them: during a visit to Facebook, the president spoke reform fiscalité payday lenders.Sans give too many details, he has to attack the tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans, plans to limit military spending and aid to agriculture, and cutting in the health program, yet very popular Medicare.

"The financial equivalent of a nuclear bomb"

What would happen if the U.S. could no longer meet their debt, as was the case for Greece, Ireland, or Portugal? It would be "the financial equivalent of a nuclear bomb ', warns Aaron Kohli, a specialist in Treasury bills at Nomura Securities. The global cataclysm is such that people do not."They must find a solution, they can not leave the financial world explode," he reassured one analyst, who notes that the financial markets show no signs of concern about the ability of U.S. authorities to agree.

David Wyss, chief economist at ratings agency Standard and Poor's, which recently threatened the U.S. triple-A, not only the Treasury "may continue to operate until August (through accounting manipulations, Ed), leaving the time in Congress to agree, but again, in case of emergency, the government "will pass the debt service as a priority."

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