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Growth "Asian" in the German economy would it an exception in a darkening global economic outlook? If the recovery is underway in Germany at rates higher than expected, also signs of fragility are multiplying on the front of the economy, and the unlikely scenario a few weeks ago a "double dip" – in the new dive recession – until now reserved for a few pessimists, is no longer excluded.

The warning came Tuesday from the Bank of England (BoE). "I think it would be unwise to say that this risk does not exist", said in an interview to The Times Martin Weale, who joined in July, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank. Martin Weale has raised the risk of rising unemployment, lower housing prices and a new crisis in the banking sector."There could be a sovereign debt crisis or it could be a new crisis of liquidity in the private sector," he said. The economist also said that the BoE's forecast, which assumes 2.8% growth in 2011 in England and 3.2% in 2011, could prove too optimistic.

U.S. housing decline

His remarks have increased the nervousness of the markets, which were significantly Tuesday on the downside. The poor performance of the U.S. housing sector that is highly sensitive for triggering the financial crisis and global recession, have added to tensions.Sales of existing homes, which represent between 90 and 95% of the market in July has been an unprecedented fall of 27.2%, falling to their lowest level since 1995, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The market suffers from April to the end of the tax credit on buying a first home. Shortly before the publication of these statistics, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, acknowledged that the risk of relapse was increased in the last six months but said "it is not the end most probable. " He expressed concern at the continued strength of the recovery, even though the second estimate of GDP in the second quarter, due Friday, should be revised sharply downward to 1.4% against 2.4%.

In Europe, the wave of rigor that will weigh on the recovery. Even rating agencies are worried.Having sanctioned the debt spiral States, first of Pigs (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain), which has led most states to adopt austerity plans, a study by Moody's published before yesterday stressed the risk posed by these savings measures on growth in the short term and the rating states. These concerns about growth in Europe have prompted the agency to lower its rating on Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and outside the euro area, on Hungary. "We carefully monitor the ways chosen by governments and their potential to generate growth," says the agency remains confident that the marking of France, Germany and Great Britain, even though these notes have weakened since the crisis.

The stock performance does not lie. Since the beginning of the year, the Euronext Building & Construction fell 18%. Values that balance the index are battered stock market. Wednesday again, the index meant the worst performing sector in Europe. The Irish manufacturer CRH, which warned on its sales in 2010, lost nearly 9% while the French Lafarge realized the worst performance of the ACC. It also loses 28.95% since January 1. Over the same period, Saint Gobain coward 17.15%, while 11.24% abandons Vinci.

The Irish group has yet taken a cold snap in stating that its sales in 2010 would be affected more severely than expected by the consequences of fiscal consolidation in the euro area and slowing the pace of recovery in USA.

The news did not surprise analysts."The fiscal crisis has not improved the situation of the sector because governments are pushing the major works to reduce the growing deficit," said Harry Sebag, an analyst at Saxo Bank. The financial crisis has also hit the industry particularly since the latter is highly dependent on the banks with which it finances a large majority of buildings.

The figures for real estate in the U.S. are also very revealing. In June, there were only 300,000 new home sales on a new year while the consensus was expecting about 424,000 sales.

Outlook not reassuring

For the future, the industry should be very cautious. "We are in a context of sluggish growth and unemployment prevails with a high public and private debt.Certainly the infrastructure programs of national recovery plans may lead us to believe a recovery in the sector, however, this growth drivers must be qualified with the recently introduced austerity policies, "said Harry Sebag. For example, France had planned to inject four billion euros in the construction sector in 2009. But only 2.5 billion have been invested and a slowdown in public works is possible for the remaining 1.5 billion.

"Businesses have already significantly impacted margins and cut prices to gain market share over the weaker euro and higher commodity prices, driven by demand from emerging economies, clouding the outlook for the sector , "says the analyst.

There is no question of a collapse."The activity is still declining, but remained stable for the rest of the year is possible if the growth recovery by 2011," warns Harry Sebag.

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Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphics.

The controversy swells daily. After the Europeans, it is now the boss of General Electric to accuse China of putting a spoke in the wheels of foreign companies. "I'm really worried, I am not sure that ultimately they want that we will succeed," he complained to an audience of businessmen from Italy, reported the Financial Times on Friday.

Last Tuesday was a report of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, which accused China to increase the discriminatory measures. He denounced a "discretionary application of laws and regulations, the registration process unnecessarily complicated and" inconsistencies in the application of national criteria.

In Beijing, many business leaders say the word to cover: it is increasingly difficult to work in China."They understand that they can leave if they are not happy," says a corporate lawyer. Since April, the party newspaper, the China Daily, had sniffed the wind of revolt and was almost threatening."When foreign companies encounter difficulties in their projects (…) if they do nothing but complain that the foreign media and amplify the case without analyzing the merits and slandering the Chinese economy, they will end up delaying the process of improving the investment environment, "he wrote.

Funny way to appease the spirits when President Hu Jintao says it wants to "take concrete steps to reject any form of protectionism and unequivocal support free trade."

The World Trade Organization said in its latest report "Interest in China and its foreign suppliers of more rapid liberalization of China's service industries.But Beijing, which, in a gesture of goodwill, will leave July 15 rebates for export taxes on certain sensitive products, prefer to believe that foreigners "grunt" on account of wages.

Rising labor costs

Demonstration of support to employees of Foxconn, Hong Kong in June Photo credits: AFP

Off imminent. A new airline, African Oxygen, will serve the Dark Continent from late September, and this from Paris. The company has filed an application for a certificate of air from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). This card is indispensable for the operation of airlines, should be obtained in the coming weeks. Thirty pilots and a hundred flight attendants have already been recruited.

To start, the company leased two Boeing 767 with U.S. lessor International Lease Finance Corporation. The first aircraft, currently in Miami, should be delivered in Paris on July 15, the second in mid-August. According to our information, Oxygen will be a scheduled airline flights to Africa, but will not provide charter flights.The aircraft will be equipped with an economy class and business class to attract "customers high contribution," including executives of oil companies.

Five destinations are planned initially: Luanda (Angola), Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire), Malabo (Equatorial Guinea), Conakry (Guinea) and Bamako (Mali). The company has obtained traffic rights to fly to these cities. She currently negotiate with Burkina Faso Ouagadougou to serve. By opening these destinations, Oxygen, which was established with a contribution of 25 million euros of "private European investors," said a source close to the case, addresses the most profitable destinations of Air France network. "The national airline is in a quasi-monopoly on Africa, says an analyst.Ticket prices are high due to a clientele of executives and individuals willing to pay the price for travel with Air France rather than African company. "

Lufhansa gaining momentum

Former executive of Airports of Paris, the founder of Oxygen, Steve Bokhobza, was chief of visits to several airlines. According to one of his collaborators, his intention is to recover the former Air France customers who now travel to Africa via the hubs of Lufthansa Group. The German competitor is indeed in full rise on the continent, where it already boasts so many destinations that Air France."As Lufthansa, Oxygen will offer prices 20% lower than those of Air France, said a close case, but will be direct flights from Paris." Eventually, the young company aims to operate four widebody to Africa and a dozen small devices in order to develop regional transport.

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The signing took place in presence of Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Saturday in St. Petersburg, Russian promoter Hermitage is committed by a Memorandum of Understanding with the EPAD to build by early 2016 two towers of 91 floors of a new kind of defense. Today, the skyscraper highest in the business district tu 220 m The twin towers designed by architect Norman Foster-star will climb to 323 m, "a meter below the Eiffel Tower to avoid offending local sensitivities," says Emin Iskenderov, CEO of Hermitage. Importantly, this will be the first high-rise (high rise buildings) mixed in France combining housing, offices and shops.With the key equipment in unprecedented tours: a theater of 1,300 seats, a contemporary art gallery, a five star hotel, restaurants, swimming pools, a student residence …

As for the apartments have a spectacular view of Paris, they will be positioned in the niche market of luxury with a price of 12,000 euros per square meter. A challenge for Defence is not today a prestigious address for individuals and Parisians are not rushing to live in towers.

Introduced in March 2009, the Hermitage Plaza project has also met with some suspicion among the French real estate professionals. First, because this promoter Russia has never built a tower in France. Then because it is a huge operation to two billion euros.

Buildings slated for demolition

But since then, Hermitage has provided some safeguards.Including funding. "We have already invested $ 150 million, Emin Iskenderov details. And in all, we will bring 250 to 280 million euros in equity. Furthermore, we are in advanced discussions with a pool of European banks to grant us a credit line of 700 million. And the marketing of our area we will bring the remaining one billion euros. "According to our information, Hermitage is also negotiating with the Four Seasons hotel group to host one of its locations in the towers. On the marketing of 540 apartments, Emin Iskenderov was also very confident: "I have already received 3,200 letters of prospects who want to buy from us."

Another thorny issue: the relocation of 250 families who lived in the buildings slated for demolition to build the towers Plaza. For now, Hermitage has found a solution for 235 to 250.That leaves five families to relocate in the year. A task is not insurmountable. But there is still a few steps before this project happen. In late July, demand for building permits will be filed. It should be granted in early 2011. And work should start right away. With delivery scheduled for late 2015-early 2016.

The name of his new baby is revealed. ExonHit, which raised 15.6 million euros fons last December, had then told him that this money would be used to buy a company in the field of Diagnotic. On Tuesday, the French biotechnology company announces that this is American and her name Redpath Integrated Pathology Inc..

Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Redpath has a technology platform based on the DNA that provides information for an individual diagnosis and clinical treatment decision tailored to each patient.

A purchase of $ 32 million

For this first acquisition since its inception in 1997, ExonHit will spend more than $ 32 million, or 24 million euros.The payment will be distributed to 12.5 million dollars in cash (EUR 9.4 million), 10 million shares (7.5 million euros) at the close of the transaction, and from 2012, Redpath's current shareholders will receive up to $ 9.5 million (7.1 million euros) in the form of milestone payments related to the achievement of sales targets.

The acquisition, subject to approval by shareholders of ExonHit, should be completed by mid-July 2010. The company has e equally on the drug market of neurodegenerative diseases and the diagnosis of cancer.

Best Diagnotic Cancer

The analytical tool of Redpath improves diagnostic accuracy in difficult cases where cancer or precancerous conditions can be characterized by conventional pathological examination, explains ExonHit.

The company, which will be part of ExonHit operations in the U.S., markets a molecular diagnostic test for cancer of the pancreas. A second test able to distinguish primary tumors from metastases is being launched.

The company's portfolio also includes two tests in the final stages of development and several programs in early development in the field of oncology.

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Should he do so without saying? The government raises the question about raising the legal age of retirement. Introduced in 1983, the possibility of a pension at age 60 is an "acquired" intangible to the unions – will undoubtedly touch inflate the number of events already planned. But the past work of the Board of Retirement Guidance (NRC) also show that this solution would be financially much more efficient in the short and medium term of a longer contribution period, this second option had significant effects that 'from 2020 at best.

Therefore, the temptation is great to work around the problem: give everyone the opportunity to leave at 60 if he wishes, but to dissuade the maximum. For this, the pension of a person choosing to leave "early" (before 62 or 63 years, for example) could be amputated, even if it has "all quarters."The track appeared there more than a month in the NRC documents, referring to examples of U.S., Japanese and German. It went almost unnoticed, except in the eyes of government officials who are working on pensions.

"The executive Ponder on it," admits one of the main actors of the file. "It's part of the range of possibilities," says a corporate source, emphasizing that nothing is decided. "I was cooking around that idea," says a union leader. Who speaks the same orders of magnitude, "a discount of 1.25% per quarter or 2.5% below the target age.In other words, for the same number of quarters validated, the person who would liquidate his pension at age 60 would incur a penalty of 10% to 20% compared to that which would prolong his career until age 62 – if the government set the example age as a goal.

A more complicated

The assumption is even less absurd than 22% maximum discount is already applied in France, supplementary pensions (Agirc-Arrco) for private sector employees who retire before age 65. The retiree does not realize, because a fund compensates this difference.

But the existence of this fund, called AGFF, is up to the renewal of a regular union-management agreement.The agreement expires at the end of this year and will be renegotiated just after the reform of pensions.

Advantage of the option: it offers hope of union protests limited, maintaining the symbolic age 60 years. Disadvantage: it would make a bit more complicated than a pension system that is already fairly. And above all, "everyone knows that it is the workers rather than managers, who tend to stop working when they have the right, a government source analysis. The risk is they leave with even lower pensions. The government plans to publish a first draft of its reform from mid-May

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The Mayor: "The negotiations should lead quickly"

"We are in the final phase of adjustments, it is normal that the negotiations become more difficult, Le Figaro said the Minister of Agriculture, Bruno Le Maire. Things must lead as soon as possible. This is an important project both industrially and in the defense of the interests of producers. On this last point, we are building with all stakeholders on an ambitious plan to develop the dairy sector, as it has ever been done for twenty years at the time of Michel Rocard. This plan should be presented in September. "

After a brief slump earlier this week, the Paris Stock Exchange resumed its forward march. The ACC has actually won 0.64%, to 4 057.70 points, reaching its highest level in 18 months. Sign of the return of investors, the volumes are recovering. More than 3 billion euro changed hands on the great values of the Paris stock exchange.

Other major European markets have also hoisted the green flag. In Frankfurt the Dax gained 0.76% and the FTSE in London was awarded 0.60%.

Even mood on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones advanced 0.56% and the Nasdaq by 0.94% at the same time.

First major U.S. company's high-tech industry to publish its quarterly results, the giant Intel microprocessors has almost quadrupled its earnings. Title flew more than 3% on Wall Street, where it swept away the whole sector.In Paris, Cap Gemini, ST Microelectronics and Alcatel Lucent took the lead in the ACC 40.

"Ideal scenario"

Another announcement eagerly awaited by the markets, the results of JPMorgan Chase, the first major Wall Street firm to disclose its accounts for the first quarter. And, again, this is good news. The New York bank announced a profit of 3.3 billion, thanks mainly to income from the investment bank.

Moreover, statistics of retail sales and consumer prices in March were pleasantly surprised. Thus, already after one year of catching up, including six months of strong rebound, retail sales have also soared by 1.6% in March. On a year they will climb by 7.6%, regaining the heights of January 2006. For Marc Touati, chief strategist at Global Equities, "it is an ideal scenario now facing the U.S. economy."The growth is increasing, but inflation does not slip" he notes. In fact, in March, consumer prices rose only 0.1% or 2.3% over one year. Excluding energy and food, inflation is even wiser since only 1.1% in March over a year, against 1.3% in February.

The files stolen by Herve Falciani the Swiss subsidiary of HSBC bank, and who found themselves in the hands of justice and the French tax authorities have been decrypted. A total of 172,000 accounts have been identified, held by 79,000 people, including 8,231 French. The prosecutor of Nice, Eric de Montgolfier, announced Tuesday evening.

It is well beyond what had been said, on March 11 last, the CEO of HSBC Private Bank, Alexander Zeller. The theft "committed by an employee of the department about three years ago, could affect some 15,000 customers," he declared at a news conference.Regarding the French, it is also far escaped the 3000 tax raised by Eric Woerth, budget minister last summer.

Return a long history

The French court before January 20, 2009 at the home of French Herve Falciani encrypted computer files containing a list of accounts held by customers of HSBC. The search was conducted as part of a request by Swiss judicial authorities, suspecting the employee of misappropriation of confidential data between 2006 and 2007.

But before passing to the Swiss – after a standoff of several months – French investigators have analyzed the content of these seizures, which have proved of great interest for justice and the French tax authorities.Prosecutors in Nice opened an investigation for money laundering and tax administration has used the data to identify suspected fraudsters cash advance to savings account.

The Battle of France

Shareholders who were illegally will pay for it keeps those who do not. Of the 6 billion euros of capital identified in the accounts in Switzerland, 700 million penalty in 2010 will be released. And 700 million euros will be refunded to taxpayers whose tax exceeds 50% of revenues.

In Italy, the method was different. Silvio Berlusconi has been voted an amnesty which showed 95 billion euros of capital and reported $ 6 billion in the Italian Treasury.

But the amnesty is not on the agenda in France. "Because the amnesty called fraud until the next amnesty," said Eric Woerth.

Italy on the alert

"Prosecutors in Turin we sent a request for mutual legal enforcement. He asked to get copies of the data we have captured, "said Eric de Montgolfier. According to the prosecutor, the Italian justice has opened an investigation for tax evasion.

The decoding of stolen files revealed the names of 7,094 Italians.

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