Growth will reach 2.1% this year
The year 2011 will be marked by beauty "jolts", it should nevertheless result in an increase of 2.1%, according to forecasts released yesterday by INSEE. A figure that – even if it is the thickness of the line – is widely expected to satisfy the government, including the forecast for this year is 2%. It is rare that the institute of statistics is more optimistic than Bercy!
This year has been marked by "shock," said he notes in the introduction of its quarterly. The first months left on the ground running, with a 1% growth in first quarter – "supported in part by exceptional factors, including the effects of catch-up following the strike last fall," and a phenomenon stock, is the INSEE.Industrial production was then greatly accelerated.
This is another backlash that explains the strong slowdown in the spring: the end of the scrapping a car that plunged household consumption, in the face of any support in the international environment.
But after that, the momentum for two years and would resume its place in the third and fourth quarters, growth would return to a rate of 0.5%. Households would resume eating, companies continue to invest and trade would not weigh on growth.
Peak inflation to 2.5% in October
In this context, improving on the employment front would continue. Job creation in the private sector would be of about 106,000 in the first half, then 73,000 the second 100% free credit score.The unemployment rate should fall back and to 9% in mainland France by the end of the year, "still above its pre-crisis", said Insee, however. This improvement, along with higher wages, could have played very positively on the wallets of the French. Especially since the Insee estimated that 1 billion the amount that could be injected by companies to employees by the end of the year (an amount that does not damage their margin, the precise INSEE) for the "premium against dividend" – a device that must still be approved by the Senate.
But did not count on the rise in inflation resulting from higher commodity prices. In October, a peak would be reached, with inflation reaching 2.5% year on year.As a result, gains in purchasing power would be only "moderate" in 2011, and they increase by 1%, after 0.8% in 2010.
The savings rate, which had increased significantly during the crisis, should remain at a high level, 16%.
Insee warns in conclusion that several uncertainties surrounding this scenario. On the negative side, the weakness of the U.S. economy could be more sustainable envisioned the restoration of the Japanese economy may be slower. Conversely, "face to improve the labor market, the French could break with the precautionary behavior they adopted during the crisis," and consumption grow more strongly than anticipated.