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The Paris Bourse has been optimistic on Monday before the Franco-German summit on Tuesday. The CAC 40, which began on the exchange increased by 1.07%, was on the rise, more moderate, from 0.78% to 3239.06 points. The index in Paris fell into the red at midday before recovering. With Monday a holiday of the Assumption, trading volumes remained low provided, to 2.3 billion euros against 7.5 billion last week.

The movement is the same in the rest of Europe. After opening sharply higher, European stock markets have slowed their progress mid-day before returning to finish the colors in a small increase. At closing, the London Stock Exchange and Frankfurt gained 0.57% 0.41%%. After remaining in the red part of the day, Madrid ended with a gain of 0.71%.Exchanges of Milan, Lisbon and Athens are closed due to holiday.

No Eurobonds on the menu Tuesday's markets are very nervous before Tuesday's meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They must discuss reform of the governance of the euro area, sensitive issue for the markets. The Franco-German promises to make such joint proposals by the end of the summer. Investors are calling for the creation of "Eurobonds", which would sign the pooling of public debt in the euro area. But Germany has dampened hopes by mid-morning by announcing that the possible creation of common obligations to countries in the euro area "will play no role" at the meeting on Tuesday."The Euro-bonds are not an option," added the spokesman of the Ministry of Finance during a press conference. The Elysee in a few minutes later confirmed that the issue of Eurobonds was "not on the agenda."

Meanwhile, the British Finance Minister, George Osborne, today called the euro area to move towards a more integrated budget to bring the world economy on the path of trust. The euro area "must now demonstrate its commitment to greater integration of budget and governance arrangements that prevent moral hazard and reinforce fiscal responsibility," said he.

In addition, the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn called on European countries to adopt "very quickly" the decisions of July 21, and provided that the applicants were working "day and night" to this.

As for currencies, the euro rose above 1.44 dollars, against 1.4249 on Friday. The single currency also rose against the Japanese currency to 110.85 yen against 109.30 on Friday.

On the macroeconomic front, on Monday was very light. In the U.S., manufacturing in the New York area fell for the third consecutive month, while the morale of U.S. home builders has remained stable, close to its lowest historical levels.

The bank-shaped

On the corporate side, Societe Generale gained 2.06% to 24.80 euros.The Financial Markets Authority (AMF) initiated an investigation of market rumors that circulated this week the bank announced Friday its president Jean-Pierre Jouyet.

The banking sector has benefited from optimism on Monday. Credit Agricole gained 3.31% to 6.735 euros, BNP Paribas up 0.81% to 37.525 euros, ahead of Axa 2.98% to 11.24 euros. Natixis finally loses 0.06% to 3.114 euros after signing the largest increase of ACC (3.95%).

France Telecom (1.38% to 13.22 euros): the telephone operator Orange has unveiled some clues on the future model of the iPhone Appel keeps top secret.

GDF Suez (0.70% to 20.90 euros) has initiated "discussions" to sell its stake from 10.4% in the West Franklin field in the North Sea, the French energy group intends to transfer for 600 million euros.

Alstom (+0.20% at 32.69 euros): Goldman Sachs rose to "neutral" on the title with a price target reduced to 43 against 52 euros.

Danone (1.48% to 47.02 euros): UniCredit has raised its rating to "buy" against "hold".

Last Friday, a small twenty senior analysts from the rating agency Standard & Poor's had noted in their agenda a top secret conference call. In fact, they were about to make history: the meeting focused on the debt rating of the United States. After several hours of deliberations, the leading world power has lost its prestigious AAA. Not a word has filtered out of the meeting.

Rating agencies cultivate secrecy around these appointments called "rating committees." The heart of their power: analysts will decide the fate of nations by voting financial, away from the public on the future of the country note. No list of participants has not been released. However, the assessment can set the tone to the market.Law and internal regulations require many investors to buy or sell some of their shares according to the decisions of the trio of major Anglo-Saxon agencies Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch.

The theory and practice

At the beginning of the procedure leading to the convening of a committee must be an event that could have an impact on the rating of a country, a new government or the publication of statistics. That's the theory. In practice, agencies are not locked in their ivory towers. "The noise of the markets or the hype, the phenomena of modes outside the agency also cause internal discussions that may cause the reopening of cases," says a former senior analyst at Moody's.

To prepare for a summit meeting, the analyst in charge of the target country meets members of the tax administration.Once or twice a year in general, often in a crisis. He did not have access to more information than large investors also regularly received by the authorities. Following a strict methodology and specific to each agency, he wrote a memo and draft a proposal for the "conf call." On the day, it will have to convince between 4 and 20 of his colleagues, a figure which varies depending on the size of the country but also … each holiday, a former gliding.

One man, one vote

One man, one vote: in principle, democratic rule prevails in rating committees. In practice, less glorious. Clan wars and other struggles for influence can disrupt the debate. As in any large company. "It can heat from analysts," says Pierre Cailleteau, ex-head of sovereign ratings at Moody's, now adviser at Lazard.For example, he says, "we were very divided about Greece last year. We had some very important debates internally. "Moody's, which was the first to lower the rating of Athens in 2009, then sharply deteriorated four notches, out of season.

In case of disagreement, how to find a majority? Standard & Poor's has found the solution: the committees are always in odd numbers. Then the strict methodology of the agency under discussion. And, theoretically, the great leader is there to calm things down. "In some cases, the director may have a strong grip on the committee," says Norbert Gaillard, specialist rating agencies *. Analysts may come under pressure, admits to spell Pierre Cailleteau: "We arrived during the session to ask an analyst to reconsider its vote, given the dominant position on the committee."Moody's, the bylaws stipulates, however, to limit the pressure, the lowest in the hierarchy and a vote in the first analyst to appeal a decision.

Subjective criteria

Still, the year-end bonus are set by the Area Manager, at Moody's in particular. The criteria are multiple, subjective: the variable compensation of an analyst depends on the work of presenting and representing the firm on the outside, the frequency of updating of countries covered, or the level of the analyst. "There are good and less good," says Pierre Cailleteau, which concluded: "It is I who stood out on bonuses." Moody's says

The former analyst, who left his practice in 2008, said: "The reports became confrontational, the atmosphere would grow over the independence of opinion. This is one reason I left. "And asks: "Given the importance given to them, is it not problematic that the agencies do not communicate about the independence of their analysts?"

In the end, the committee's decision is published, with an argument, in a press release. But no mention of voting results, the agencies do not want to reveal internal divisions. We do not know if the note of the United States has been lowered with a broad consensus. Or with a voice apart.

Agencies to staff shortages

"Agencies do not have the resources corresponding to the importance of financial regulations and investors give them-and they give themselves," lamented a former Moody's. Standard & Poor's, the largest agency in the world, the Wall Street Journal has only 70 to 80 analysts, juniors and seniors, covering 126 countries.Result, "every senior analyst is responsible for an average of 6 to 10 countries, shows the former analyst. When I was at the International Monetary Fund, an economist focused exclusively on one country. "

Same thing during visits to the Ministries of Finance of the State. Former Moody's drives the point home: "At the IMF, the missions are conducted on site by five and last 15 days. Moody's, we were two, and the visit lasted two to three days. "In Fitch's rating committees collect a minimum of four analysts. At most, 20 people participated, but it is very rare. Contacted by lefigaro.fr, Moody's would not say how many senior analysts it employs.

Rating agencies could afford to recruit: profitability is very high. Moody's expects a gross margin between 38 and 40% in 2011.The past year, Fitch was more than half of revenues (58%) and the Standard & Poor's to 43% on the only first three months of 2011.

* Norbert Gaillard is the author of "The rating agencies", Éditions La Découverte, 2010

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After a week marked by the beginning of a very nervous investors, the Paris stock market is still under pressure on Tuesday, still confused about how to react against the agreement reached Sunday night in the United States on raising the ceiling of the debt. The CAC 40 was down at the opening of 0.52% to 3569.26 points before giving further 0.45% to 3571.86 points in mid-session.

The benchmark index of the Paris this morning reached a new session low of the year at 3553.54 points. Yesterday, he finished in a very sharp decline (-2.27%), despite an optimistic start of the session after Barack Obama announced that a compromise was finally reached between Republicans and Democrats on the measures to be taken to reduce 'U.S. debt, after weeks of negotiations.The House of Representatives has also tonight approved the agreement, which will, from this Tuesday evening, subject to the U.S. Senate.

The Cac 40 was finished on Monday, under the 3600 points, to 3588.05 points, the lowest since August 2010. In addition to the uncertainty on the adoption by Congress of a plan considered "a minima", investors were frightened by the publication of an indicator of U.S. industrial activity is very disappointing. What revived fears about the strength of the growth of world's largest economy.

Therefore account for these concerns again the minds of investors on Tuesday, while voting in the night by the House of Representatives from the increased ceiling of U.S. debt relieves some of the final adoption of the plan.The Senate vote, expected on Tuesday to 18 hours, should not influence the market today.

In addition, rating agencies have not yet given their opinion on the common ground found in extremis by the elected Democrats and Republicans, especially regarding proposed budget cuts to reduce the deficit (2.5 trillion dollars over 10 years) . This raises the specter of a possible degradation of the maximum always assigned to the U.S. sovereign debt (AAA).

Elsewhere in Europe these concerns also influence the trend. In London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.56% to 5742.24 points while in Frankfurt the Dax moves ever in the 7000 points mark, after the results poorly received by the market.Metro disappointed.

The long-awaited economic figures

Beyond the issue of debt, new macroeconomic indicators are expected across the Atlantic on Tuesday and could more severely curb the trend. At 14:30 will be unveiled including the revenues and expenditures of U.S. households for the month of June while vehicle sales for the month of July should be reported late this evening.

Meanwhile, in Europe, producer prices remained stable in June, having increased by almost 6% year on year, according to data released Tuesday by the EU statistics office Eurostat. In May, prices fell 0.2% after 19 months of consecutive increases (5.9% increase).

On the currency front, the markets vary little, still mixed on how to deal with an agreement reached in the snatch.The euro was virtually unchanged against the dollar on Tuesday morning after its decline yesterday, and while the vote on raising the debt ceiling is expected in the U.S. Senate. In mid-session, the European currency was worth 1.42 dollars, a slight decline of 0.36%.

The side of the barrel, and the day after a volatile session marked by swings of the agreement on U.S. oil prices rose slightly off again Tuesday morning in electronic trading in Asia. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in September yielded 0.85% to 94.08 dollars.

As for values ​​to follow

Alcatel-Lucent rebounds strongly, leading the CAC 40 in mid-session (1.56% to 2.66 euros), while Schneider Electric last displayed index (-4.05% to 96 euros) .

Early publications of the banks, BNP bounces in mid-session

The pace of publication of results of companies this week is calmer. Note, however, launched the quarterly publications of the major banks, with BNP Paribas, which reported this morning results below expectations. The first French bank missed the consensus in the second quarter due to supply and charges (560 million) related to the background of aid to Greece and a weaker than expected growth in income.Consequence of this disappointment, the stock has fallen sharply this morning, before recovering in mid-term: shortly after noon, BNP Paribas 0.56% clawing at 43.92 euros, Societe Generale advance of 1.35% to 33.75 euros (bank accounts will detail on Wednesday), Natixis wins 0.48%, to 3.12 euros, but sells Axa 0.51% to 12.74% (results on Thursday).

NYSE-Euronext (-0.89% at 22, 75 euros). The exchange operator has issued Tuesday a quarterly net profit down 16% to $ 154 million (106.83 million euros), reflecting a decline in trading volumes in equity markets and derivatives markets in New York and Europe.

Schneider Electric (-4.13% to 95.092 euros) announced Tuesday the resignation of Anand Mahindra's term as a member of the Supervisory Board due to potential conflicts of interest between the French and Indian group Mahindra & Mahindra.These conflicts could "arise from the development of these two groups in the distribution business in India," said in a statement the French specialist of electrical equipment.

The specialty chemical Arkema (-3.18% to 64.19 euros) should be very surrounded on Tuesday after the group announced an increase of 33% of its EBITDA (EBITDA) quarterly, which reaches a record 320 million euros.Thierry group provides the Hénaff for 2011 an increase of about 30% of its EBITDA.

EADS (-1.71% to 23.54 euros), despite having a large cash flow, it does not squander his money by overpaying their prey, said Monday its director of acquisitions in an interview to Reuters, after announcing a fourth acquisition this year for the European aerospace giant.

HSBC (2.01% to 7.09 euros) the British bank, one of the first in Europe, will hire 15,000 people in emerging markets over the next three years, said a spokesman Tuesday, the day after the announcement of the removal of 30 000 jobs worldwide.

Gameloft (-0.21% to 4.74 euros) confirmed late Monday its growth targets in sales and margins in 2011 after a consolidated turnover up 11% to 37.4 million euros the second quarter.The weak dollar has had a negative impact on sales, said the publisher of mobile games.

Note that DnxCorp (ex-Dreamnex, -1.99% to 19.75 euros) will unveil its after market sales for the second quarter.

For the first time, the sale of tobacco is regulated overseas. Following the enactment last Saturday of supplementary budget for 2011, only licensed dealers are now allowed to sell cigarettes in the departments of overseas.

These licenses distributed by the county councils are limited in number for the 540 Martinique, 550 for Guadeloupe, Reunion and 1070 to 300 in Guyana. This provision does not apply to Mayotte for when the tax is not yet aligned with that of other DOM.

This measure looks controversial local shops who use tobacco to attract customers concerned about the financial loss they may sustain same day payday loans. Those who will not benefit, however, the licensing of a transition period of five months.They will then be allowed to "continue the sale to individuals during the period strictly necessary for the depletion of their stock and not later than December 31, 2011," according to the legislation.

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Cocorico at McDonald's. The American chain, famous for its burgers, is preparing to lead a revolution in the world of fast food, introducing the baguette on the card! Later in September, its customers will experience the charm of a breakfast at the French, by having bread and butter and jam on fresh bread in the 130 McCafe chain (separate counters of coffee , cakes and pastries). In the first half of 2012, McDonald's go even further by launching the new sandwich-based wand. Formidable competition for all bakers, especially since McDonald's is decidedly very affordable price.

The bread will be supplied by the Holder Group (owner of Paul Bakeries and Ladurée), which already manufactures the supply of cakes and pastries of McCafe in France."During its first fifteen years in France, in 1980, McDonald's has primarily offered a small slice of America in important model, said Nawfal Trabelsi, senior vice president, McDonald's France and southern Europe. Today, we are part of everyday French. Our priority is to integrate local and tint of French culture history of our offer hamburgers and ice cream, while inventing new forms of sandwiches. The French are passionate about bread, crazy wand. We respond progressively to a natural demand. "According to the firm Gira Council, the French consume nine times as many sandwiches as hamburgers, and more than 60% of sandwiches sold in France are based on baguette.The most acclaimed is the classic: ham and butter (75% of sales of baguette sandwiches).

Success of the wheat cake

By baking fresh bread in the morning, McDonald's hopes to boost its offering of breakfast, while flattering image. "We feel the smell of warm bread at the entrance," says Isabelle Kuster, Vice President of Operations in France and Southern Europe at McDonald's check cash advance. Specifically, from the start, the McCafe offers small individual flutes, two sold with a portion of butter (provided by the cooperative of Isigny) and a small jar of jam (apricot, raspberry and orange), handmade by a producer the Pyrenees. "We are responding to a request, warrant Isabelle Kuster.Our breads are baked on the premises all day, the idea being to sell them warm at all times. "Already, 25% of transactions are McCafé the morning (usually open from 7 to 8 hours), but breakfast is less than 1% of sales of McDonald's. "It would be wonderful to double sales," says Isabelle Kuster.

The arrival of the baton at McDonalds, so symbolic, is a step in the strategy of teaching to meet specific dietary habits if the French, while working with local suppliers. In 2009, the chain broke new ground with a Big Mac in the bread. In January, it launched a McCantal and in late February, Charolais, Charolais burger with French origin."At McDonald's, we strive to continuously reinvent ourselves," insists Nawfal Trabelsi, stressing that "diversifying the supply of bread is at the heart of our strategy of product development." Since May, McDonald's markets and the McWrap, cooked to order in a large cake topped wheat. France is the second country after Austria to build on this new generation of sandwiches to supplement the supply of burgers and salads. The first results are above expectations. In two months, over 50% of customers have tasted and three quarters have already renewed the experiment.

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After months of discussions, the two alternative operators in France, Energy, Direct Energy and Poweo, will join forces. The first will announce Wednesday morning the acquisition of 46% stake in the Austrian Verbund in the second. The transaction, which amounts to 36 million euros – at a rate of 4.77 euros per share – allows Direct Energy to become the shareholder of Poweo, the company founded and headed by Charles Beigbeder long. The UK fund Ecofin has for its part, 26%, against 9.5% for the investment company Luxempart and 18.5% for the float.

"This is the first step in the formation of a major independent challenger of EDF and GDF Suez, which already book a million customers in the gas and electricity," said Xavier Caitucoli, CEO of Direct Energy.The portfolio of the company amounted to 650,000 customers specifically, while some 350,000 claims in Poweo.

Xavier Caitucoli, there is no question of seeing this combination in the ultimate act of resistance of both companies in a market ultradominé by incumbents. "Instead, we are here to stay. The new law on the organization of the electricity market, adopted recently, gives us more visibility on our margins and gives the end user the opportunity to go freely in the competition and return to regulated rates if desired ".

Eight European banks have failed the tests of resistance imposed on 91 banks on the continent to test their strength in the event of economic shocks, said Friday in a statement the EBA (EBA) responsible for these tests.

ABB said that the banks needed a total of 2.5 billion euros to strengthen. She did not initially detail the name or nationality of the banks that failed the exam, each institution concerned and the national regulators with priority to communicate about it.

According to announcements made simultaneously in each country by banks and regulators, five Spanish banks and a German bank failed.Two banks failed still missing the call, the regulators have not yet communicated all.

ABB said that the results of only 90 banks had finally been taken into account, without further explanation.

All Italian banks, French, Portuguese, Irish and British passed the test.

As announced in Le Figaro on Wednesday morning, it is Baroin which eventually succeeded in Christine Lagarde Minister of Economy. Valérie Pécresse was appointed to the Department of Budget and is also the holder parolat government. Bruno Le Maire remained in agriculture.

The combination has changed from what was planned Tuesday night after a political blackmail fully assumed by Baroin. The latter has resigned in the balance when he knew that the decision to appoint Bruno Mayor for Economic Affairs was in the process of being confirmed.

The Minister of Agriculture was preferred by Xavier Musca, the secretary general of the Elysee, but also that of Alain Juppe, which saw Nicolas Sarkozy about it this weekend. But it is ultimately a more logical policy that took her.The other entrants were the centrist UMP Marc-Philippe Daubresse for Research, Francois Sauvadet, the chairman of the New Centre in the National Assembly, which would become Secretary of State for Planning.

Other changes of this redesign, Laurent Wauquiez retrieves the portfolio Valérie Pécresse and became Minister of Higher Education and Research. He leaves European Affairs Jean Leonetti. The centrist Francois Sauvadet becomes him, Minister of Public Service while Thierry Mariani became Minister for Transport. Finally, David Douillet became Secretary of State of French nationals abroad (see the complete list of nominations of the new government).

"The president gives in to every whim"

This new combination of government will leave its mark in the quadrants of the majority.The mayor was outraged to find that enough of a nervous breakdown of his former friend Baroin to patterns established by the head of state to be thrown to the basket. Tuesday evening, he suddenly refused the ministry's budget that he proposed in François Fillon consolation prize, saying he had "no special skills to make on the job," says a close associate of Minister of Agriculture.

As for Baroin, he was forced Tuesday to discover his true ambition: to enter at all costs in the round of presidential candidates. This calculation has not escaped François Fillon, who sees as his advantage by supporting the budget minister, he knows he drives a wedge between two lifelong friends: Jean-Francois Cope and Baroin.One thing is certain in any case: the dinners of the quadrants, which gathered around the ambitious Cope from the right will be an opportunity to explain some friends or former friends. "It seems that the president gives in to every whim," says one familiar from the Elysee.

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The year 2011 will be marked by beauty "jolts", it should nevertheless result in an increase of 2.1%, according to forecasts released yesterday by INSEE. A figure that – even if it is the thickness of the line – is widely expected to satisfy the government, including the forecast for this year is 2%. It is rare that the institute of statistics is more optimistic than Bercy!

This year has been marked by "shock," said he notes in the introduction of its quarterly. The first months left on the ground running, with a 1% growth in first quarter – "supported in part by exceptional factors, including the effects of catch-up following the strike last fall," and a phenomenon stock, is the INSEE.Industrial production was then greatly accelerated.

This is another backlash that explains the strong slowdown in the spring: the end of the scrapping a car that plunged household consumption, in the face of any support in the international environment.

But after that, the momentum for two years and would resume its place in the third and fourth quarters, growth would return to a rate of 0.5%. Households would resume eating, companies continue to invest and trade would not weigh on growth.

Peak inflation to 2.5% in October

In this context, improving on the employment front would continue. Job creation in the private sector would be of about 106,000 in the first half, then 73,000 the second 100% free credit score.The unemployment rate should fall back and to 9% in mainland France by the end of the year, "still above its pre-crisis", said Insee, however. This improvement, along with higher wages, could have played very positively on the wallets of the French. Especially since the Insee estimated that 1 billion the amount that could be injected by companies to employees by the end of the year (an amount that does not damage their margin, the precise INSEE) for the "premium against dividend" – a device that must still be approved by the Senate.

But did not count on the rise in inflation resulting from higher commodity prices. In October, a peak would be reached, with inflation reaching 2.5% year on year.As a result, gains in purchasing power would be only "moderate" in 2011, and they increase by 1%, after 0.8% in 2010.

The savings rate, which had increased significantly during the crisis, should remain at a high level, 16%.

Insee warns in conclusion that several uncertainties surrounding this scenario. On the negative side, the weakness of the U.S. economy could be more sustainable envisioned the restoration of the Japanese economy may be slower. Conversely, "face to improve the labor market, the French could break with the precautionary behavior they adopted during the crisis," and consumption grow more strongly than anticipated.

Just arrived in the summer, here are the summer sales. From Wednesday, the clothing retailers will offer discounts of 30 to 50% of their collections. This is for them to attract consumers who shun fashion for nearly two years. If an improvement was seen in the spring, it could be threatened by an inevitable increase in prices of clothing, the impact of rising costs of raw materials, labor and transportation.

"We are all faced with rising production costs that we have at least partly reflected in our prices, and this will be even bigger in the fall and winter," says Antoine Brieu, director of C & A France. Its sign, high image discount, is not doing too badly at the moment, because in inflationary times, consumers fall back on cheap brands.C & A has found "a significant increase in its turnover and sales volumes" in March, April and May

"Buy smart"

In general, the industry experienced a beautiful spring, after a bad first quarter. Sales in April and May were supported by good weather, before a lull since early June due to weather and to wait before a traditional balances. "We have no signs of a recovery in the consumption of textiles in France, contrary to what one can see in some countries of northern Europe, says Gildas Minvielle, head of the center of economic French Institute of fashion. And in times of crisis, it is difficult to raise prices too much.The increases will be applied in a differentiated way for this to be as painless as possible. "

Aware of the issue, the French will then engage in a hunt for "buying smart", as they have done since the beginning of the economic downturn. This time, the scope is relatively narrow. As traders have sold quite well in early spring, the stocks available for sales are less important than the past seasons.

Distinguish the goods to the risk of missing

In addition, professionals, stung by the decline in demand were far more modest in their orders. "Companies have become very conservative for two years.They would rather miss sales than remain with unsold inventory, "said Jean-Marc Genis, president of the National Federation of brands of clothing.

If, as always, a rush is expected at the start of the period, the effect balances the risk of falling fast enough. "We usually sell 50% of our total sales the first week and then is divided by two every week," said Antoine Brieu C & A.

So, after two to three weeks, the goods to stand out may be missed. This will allow retailers to quickly implement the fall-winter season.With price increases all the more important that the parts are more "heavy" coat material includes more than a T-shirt.

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