Every day that passes, especially when it is marked on Friday by a whammy on the stock market puts a little more pressure on banks. European states will they, as in 2008, help? No definite answer exists. For those who, at the head of the state, banks and central banks have a clear idea of the seriousness of the situation do not speak or hold soothing speeches to not add to the crisis to the crisis. Those who are not business more freely evoke crisis scenarios. As Ségolène Royal, who on Saturday declared shamelessly that "banks are likely to reapply using the State (…) probably in the week."
• Why would banks they need public money?
Two potential pitfalls they face. The first is the complete drying of resources: banks need to borrow in the markets to finance their activities.But the debt crisis of state in Europe increasingly discourages lenders. The foreclosure market in which victims were successively facilities Greek, Irish and Portuguese, and Spanish and Italian, now seems to win the entire euro area. While the banks are adapting, borrowing more short term, "cutting" their positions to save their cash and, finally, by obtaining new money to the European Central Bank. But these solutions are not sustainable and some European banks now find themselves in a situation of great fragility of the front of the "liquidity".
The second threat to the banks, the losses they may have to cash because of the economic slowdown and the crisis of the State debts, the most immediate threat is that of the Greek debt.According to the German press, Berlin also preparing a plan to support public financial sector, activated in case of bankruptcy of Greece.
• All banks will they need help?
It is likely that some banks will need help. The challenge will be to contain the fire. In the current climate of stress, the announcement of a rescue may create a systemic crisis, investors no longer completing lend to any institution, investors preferring to withdraw their assets. In 2008, states had implemented plans with extensive, the mass drowning in the case of banks the most vulnerable payday loan. This time, large swarm may be against-productive because it gave credence to the thesis is prepared throughout the banking sector to a major shock on sovereign debt."As if the policies were sending a signal that they do not believe in their own measures" to rescue the eurozone, fell last week the boss of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann.
• What form of aid could take?
For banks in need, the ideal would be to recapitalize private funds. In late July, two Greek banks have also announced a merger made possible by a cash injection … Qatar. But, with few exceptions, European states will be well on the front line. This poses two problems. The first is financial: some countries already weakened may be difficult to bring in bank balance sheets at times equivalent to their GDP. The solution could come from the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The European Agreement of 21 July – which is not yet approved by national parliaments – provided he can assume this mission.
The second issue is political: public opinion will they accept to "save" the banks again? "Only if they pay a lot more expensive that in 2008 the capital provided to them and the money they are paid," says a policy that "a justified rescue also new requirements for remuneration, renewal management and separation of activities. "
• French banks are they on the front line?
French banks, which had pretty well through the crisis of 2008-2009, are more turbulent than in 2011. Their expansion in Europe, particularly Greece and Italy, has become a weakness.They are also consuming enough liquidity in the markets for two reasons: their "universal" model makes significant players in investment banking and market structure of savings has offset it to the insurance life and mutual funds rather than bank balance sheets. To view added real or perceived weaknesses of each: a large dependence on market funding at Dexia, a reputation started and strong market positions at Societe Generale, a Greek subsidiary Crédit Agricole …