Scenario "mixed" in 2010, Aurel BCG. For the investment company, next year will look like a year of transition, marked by a gradual normalization of interest rates decided by the central banks, and during which growth must learn to stand on its own wings in freeing themselves from support plans of governments.
Buoyed by forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, which reported a growth in world GDP of 3.9% in 2010 – with Asia as the main engine (+9.5% for China and 7.5 % for India) – Aurel Leven provides that the government plans to continue to support recovery activities, at least the first half of 2010.
For the second half of the year, Aurel precludes any recovery scenario L or W.The broker sees a recovery "classic" of activity, namely a recovery of employment and investment after a dynamic side of the business activity. According to Christian Parisot, Director of Research of Aurel, central banks are "very progressive" back their rates. The broker forecasts indicate a refinancing rate to 1.5% at end 2010, the United States and Europe, 2% in the United Kingdom and 0.3% in Japan."In addition, the movement of recovery will give a boost to international trade," said Christian Parisot at a presentation of his predictions for 2010 in early December.
Go back, go back for more
Financial markets later, Alexander the Drogoff, head of technical analysis at Aurel, displays a degree of caution in the first quarter, "markets should shrink during the first weeks of the year, while stock indexes hit areas strong psychological resistance, "he said at the conference.Between March and December 2009, the European stock indices and U.S. have in effect removed between 40 and 60% of losses incurred between September 2007 and March 2009.
Specifically, Aurel table on a retracement between 930 and 960 points the S & P 500 (approximately -15%) horizon three months, before resuming the path gently rising, reaching timidly 1 200 points at the end of 2010. In Europe, the DJ Stoxx 600, around 250 points in late 2009, is expected between 215 and 220 points in the month of February.
In Paris the CAC 40, which hovers around 3800 points since early December, should yield about 5% in three months horizon for refranchir the 4,000 points in mid-2010 and peak at 4300 points by December 2010. On a year the Parisian flagship index would therefore rise by just over 10%. Same forecast Frankfurt the Dax 30 should clinch a little over 600 points in one year, to 6.400 points.Overall, for 2010, Aurel recommends priority areas of distribution and supply in a context of economic recovery. The chemistry, technology stocks and health are also recommended. In contrast, the automotive sector and the activities of banks and insurance are excluded. (INFOGRAPHY 2?)
The Fed played a very
For Aurel, 2010 should not book too many surprises: a priori, only changes in the communication from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could induce a violent reaction in the bond market and the dollar, but we believe the tightening of Monetary policy will be smooth, "said Christian Parisot. In contrast, 2011, uncertainties, while the fiscal tightening needed to cope with issues of size: the public accounts.Especially as the interest rate long-term risk of straining the economy recovers – Aurel is 4.2% at twelve months, against 3.3% in Europe today – a much higher cost of debt .
The dollar should, according to the Bureau of analysis, continue to strengthen against major currencies after signs of improvement in the U.S. economy. "Now the dollar is now several months since an indicator of risk aversion," said Christian Parisot, adding that when the dollar appreciates, the fear of risk is increasing and the stock markets are penalized.According to Aurel BCG, the dollar should rise further, to the "pivot area" of 1.4625 dollars per euro, "and why not climb to 1.35 in six months," Alexander Legrodoff omen.
Regarding gold, Aurel anticipates a "zone of turbulence", after an explosive year 2009 when the yellow metal has chained record after record, with a zenith at 1210 dollars an ounce hit in early December. "Considering past trends and technical indicators, the gold price is expected to contract 25 to 30% off at $ 1,000, or return the $ 925 threshold in the coming weeks," Alexander the Drogoff supports.
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