New homes: Sales down but prices rise
The new housing market has definitely signs of weakness. The Federation of developers (FPI) released on Monday of new home sales down 19% in the first half of 2011 compared to the same period of 2010. "It's a market downturn. We are concerned whether the second quarter marked a slight slowdown in the decline (-17%) compared to first quarter (-21%), "responded the president on Monday of the REIT Marc Pigeon.
In addition to a base effect related to a strong rebound in sales in 2009 and 2010, this figure reflects the impact of the behavior of investors in the new home market. In 2009 and 2010, they accounted for almost two thirds of acquirers. But the reform of the Scellier, effective in 2011, and rising interest rates since the fall of 2010, helping to discourage this type of buyers.Between the first half of 2011 and first half 2010, sales to investors and have collapsed by 32%.
Meanwhile, the new interest-free loan, the "PTZ +", is still struggling to convince individuals to invest in the new. Over 70% of loans granted by the state were to purchase an old property, say the developers. Finally, sales "in the accession", down 1% in the first half of 2011, therefore not enough to offset falling sales to investors.
Especially as the prices of new homes continue to rise, contributing to a creditworthy buyers months. Despite lower demand and increased supply, prices jump by 9.7% year over year. The increase was more pronounced as ever in the Ile-de-France, due to the scarcity of land (12.5% yoy, against 6.4 in the rest of France).One reason for this paradox lies in the spread of new buildings low consumption, more expensive but higher quality analysis of IPF cash till payday.
Safe haven
This change in the new home market still contrasts sharply with the market of the former. While the lawyers emphasized in July attenuation of the increase in sales in the first quarter, after a very dynamic year 2010. Ile-de-France in particular, the number of homes sold decreased by 4% in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the same period of 2010. A decrease due to the scarcity of goods for sale in Paris, as well as a relative lull after the peak sales in late 2010. But on the whole of France, sales volumes progressed further by 23% in March 2011 over a year.
Despite rising real estate rates, which crowd out some buyers, prices remain steady increase otherwise.In one year, the apartments are in price by 10.5% and 7.8% of the houses, according to latest figures published by notaries in France. But these increases mask contrasting trends. If the prices of apartments in Paris are more than 20%, 21 counties recorded lower prices in one year, find notaries.
Overall, however, the real estate market should remain strong this year. "The fundamentals of the French market are safe," said Olivier Eluère, an economist at Credit Agricole. The granting of credit is not excessive, the presence of property dealers in the market not significant, while the supply of housing remains structurally inadequate in some areas. The real estate market should furthermore continue to benefit from a safe-haven status in an uncertain economy.Devices such as government or Scellier + PTZ can also support the request. Lower prices should not be generalized profile before long.