World News – International Headlines, Stories

Scenario "mixed" in 2010, Aurel BCG. For the investment company, next year will look like a year of transition, marked by a gradual normalization of interest rates decided by the central banks, and during which growth must learn to stand on its own wings in freeing themselves from support plans of governments.

Buoyed by forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, which reported a growth in world GDP of 3.9% in 2010 – with Asia as the main engine (+9.5% for China and 7.5 % for India) – Aurel Leven provides that the government plans to continue to support recovery activities, at least the first half of 2010.

For the second half of the year, Aurel precludes any recovery scenario L or W.The broker sees a recovery "classic" of activity, namely a recovery of employment and investment after a dynamic side of the business activity. According to Christian Parisot, Director of Research of Aurel, central banks are "very progressive" back their rates. The broker forecasts indicate a refinancing rate to 1.5% at end 2010, the United States and Europe, 2% in the United Kingdom and 0.3% in Japan."In addition, the movement of recovery will give a boost to international trade," said Christian Parisot at a presentation of his predictions for 2010 in early December.

Go back, go back for more

Financial markets later, Alexander the Drogoff, head of technical analysis at Aurel, displays a degree of caution in the first quarter, "markets should shrink during the first weeks of the year, while stock indexes hit areas strong psychological resistance, "he said at the conference.Between March and December 2009, the European stock indices and U.S. have in effect removed between 40 and 60% of losses incurred between September 2007 and March 2009.

Specifically, Aurel table on a retracement between 930 and 960 points the S & P 500 (approximately -15%) horizon three months, before resuming the path gently rising, reaching timidly 1 200 points at the end of 2010. In Europe, the DJ Stoxx 600, around 250 points in late 2009, is expected between 215 and 220 points in the month of February.

In Paris the CAC 40, which hovers around 3800 points since early December, should yield about 5% in three months horizon for refranchir the 4,000 points in mid-2010 and peak at 4300 points by December 2010. On a year the Parisian flagship index would therefore rise by just over 10%. Same forecast Frankfurt the Dax 30 should clinch a little over 600 points in one year, to 6.400 points.Overall, for 2010, Aurel recommends priority areas of distribution and supply in a context of economic recovery. The chemistry, technology stocks and health are also recommended. In contrast, the automotive sector and the activities of banks and insurance are excluded. (INFOGRAPHY 2?)

The Fed played a very

For Aurel, 2010 should not book too many surprises: a priori, only changes in the communication from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could induce a violent reaction in the bond market and the dollar, but we believe the tightening of Monetary policy will be smooth, "said Christian Parisot. In contrast, 2011, uncertainties, while the fiscal tightening needed to cope with issues of size: the public accounts.Especially as the interest rate long-term risk of straining the economy recovers – Aurel is 4.2% at twelve months, against 3.3% in Europe today – a much higher cost of debt .

The dollar should, according to the Bureau of analysis, continue to strengthen against major currencies after signs of improvement in the U.S. economy. "Now the dollar is now several months since an indicator of risk aversion," said Christian Parisot, adding that when the dollar appreciates, the fear of risk is increasing and the stock markets are penalized.According to Aurel BCG, the dollar should rise further, to the "pivot area" of 1.4625 dollars per euro, "and why not climb to 1.35 in six months," Alexander Legrodoff omen.

Regarding gold, Aurel anticipates a "zone of turbulence", after an explosive year 2009 when the yellow metal has chained record after record, with a zenith at 1210 dollars an ounce hit in early December. "Considering past trends and technical indicators, the gold price is expected to contract 25 to 30% off at $ 1,000, or return the $ 925 threshold in the coming weeks," Alexander the Drogoff supports.

ALSO READ:

"Mergers and Acquisitions: 2010 new wave

"Schroders" the period of easy money is over "

"Axa IM: exchanges should evolve inverted L in 2010

"Interest rates should not be identified before six months"

"The markets have been too pessimistic"

"The market shares may gain 10 to 15% in 2010

Who will succeed? That is the question to 150 billion dollars – the value of its holding – that everyone asks about Warren Buffett, the guru of American finance, 79 years old, second wealthiest world. This week his company Berkshire Hathaway was appointed Member of the Board Stephen Burke, the number two U.S. cable operator Comcast, which just bought NBC Universal.

At 51, Burke will be part of the young guard of that noble assembly of twelve people, half of which has more than 70 years and four members over 80. It will sit alongside Bill Gates (54), a former head of Coca-Cola (whose capital is the largest shareholder), Donald Keough (83), Charles Munger (85), right arm Buffett and Howard Buffett, eldest son of the "Oracle of Omaha". The latter, who just turned 55, is a philanthropist, photographer and farmer in his spare time.It has been designated as future president of the board, which does not mean he would succeed his father as head of investment holding.

Found this gem is also the main task, according to Warren Buffett, the board of directors. "Nothing is more important: nobody can say where I'll be the day", he justified in an interview in March. At the general meeting of the company in May, he had been pressed by shareholders to disclose the name of a successor.

Stephen Burke, the newcomer, a veteran of Disney, "is an expert in the business, mindful of the interests of shareholders and very interested in Berkshire," Buffett said. He could follow his professional development has long been the father of Stephen, Daniel Burke, had been head of Capital Cities / ABC, a major investment success of Berkshire Hathaway in the 1990s."It's how to do everything Buffett family," said Jeff Matthews, author of a book on finance.

Year tormented

Still active, Warren Buffett has once again assign a block of shares in the credit rating agency Moody's, whose reputation has been tainted by the financial crisis, cutting its stake from 34% since June In early November, he was surprised by launching a takeover bid to $ 26 billion on rail freight company Brulington Northern Santa Fe has also recently invested in ExxonMobil, Nestl? and doubled its stake in Wal-Mart.

Investors scrutinize any decision papy finance to learn about the crisis. However, his company completed one years tormented.If it posted earnings much better than expected in the third quarter of $ 3.2 billion, three times more than the year before, she had begun the year in the red. Affected by the financial crisis, the group had experienced a loss of 1.5 billion dollars in the first quarter, came close a grim series of six quarters of decline. Over the year, the action Berkshire Hathaway has grown by only 2%.

The consumption of manufactured goods rose more households in November. After a 1% increase in October, the index has shown quasi-stable -0, 1%, according to figures from INSEE.

This figure was supported, as in previous months, by buying cars in significant increase of 4.2% in line with the trend observed since August. "The household benefit last months of premium breaks down before his scheduled first next January, said Insee.

In contrast, spending on equipment housing slows markedly, to 0.2%, against 2.1% in October. "If they keep their spending in electrical and electronic households have reduced their spending on furniture," said INSEE.

The week's floating balances authorized in November did not save the textiles and leather. Purchases fell 1.8% in November, two months after dynamic (+2.4% in October and 3% in September).

In 2009, INSEE expects a limited increase in consumption of 0.7%, after 0.9% in 2008. Consumption is the traditional engine of French growth and growing at a rate of 2 to 2.5% until 2007.

For the third consecutive month, the French industrial morale remains very low in December. The synthetic indicator of business climate has stabilized at 89 points, down one point compared to November, INSEE said on Friday. The long period average is 100 points.

Chilling, INSEE noted that "the reversal indicator" sense "to detect the earliest possible time the industrial economy turns around," came "in the area indicating an economic downturn."

Business leaders note much of the sector increased their activity increased and stocks far below their level a long period, but observed a deterioration in their global order books and abroad. Their production forecasts are less good.

"The personal perspectives of production are less well oriented in November.The industrial and anticipate a slight slowdown in the coming months, "notes the INSEE.

The index had rebounded after the spring after a low of 69 points in March.

ALSO READ:

"Germany: business confidence up

The European Commission was investigating since January 2008 on possible abuse of dominant position by Microsoft in Internet browsers. If Brussels is to end its investigation, the U.S. giant had to make heavy concessions, agreeing to provide European users with a choice of internet browser to its Windows operating system, then ships only with browser: Internet Explorer.

The lawsuit, initiated by Opera Software, a competitor of the firm of Steve Ballmer, was motivated illegal competitive advantage that the systematic incorporation of Internet Explorer to Windows would have given Microsoft.

Internet Explorer will suddenly face competition

The latter agreed to five years to propose to all European users in Windows versions XP, Vista and 7 to choose their browser.Firefox, Opera and Chrome, the three major browsers Internet Explorer competitors are rubbing their hands when you know that Windows team 90% of PCs worldwide.

Manufacturers of computers equipped with Windows in factory can also completely disable Internet Explorer and install a competing browser.

Microsoft chose to make concessions, risking a fine that could reach 10% of its annual turnover worldwide, is a mere 6 billion euros in fines.

"Millions of European consumers will benefit from this decision with the choice of browser they use," welcomed the Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry has awarded this Saturday oilfield Qourna-2 in western consortium of Russian Lukoil and Norway's StatoilHydro. With 12.8 billion of reserves, Qourna in the south, is the largest of the ten fields for auction this weekend in Baghdad.

Lukoil, StatoilHydro proposed to be paid $ 1.15 per barrel to produce 1.8 million barrels per day.

The French group Total was also a candidate. After failing on Friday another mega Majnoon field (12 billion of reserves), the multinational and thus suffers another setback. After two days of the auction will win the total operating a field much smaller than Halfaya and minority partnership with the Malaysian Petronas and China's CNPC. But as its leaders had repeated, Total was not ready to engage in Iraq at any price.The French multinational denounces discounts on their earnings than its rivals agree in hopes of winning these contracts. Absent from Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003, Total will have to wait before making his return to a country which has the third largest reserves of oil and where the French group was present for decades.

With five fields awarded since Friday, Iraq is certain to occur in the coming years to 4.485 million bbl / d more.

"BLOG – Total lost the first round of oil bids Iraq

"Oil: Total wins a mini contract in Iraq

"Oil: the moment of truth has arrived for Total in Iraq

After hesitating, the CAC 40 fell in early afternoon after falling from the perspective of the debt of Spain. The flagship index of the Paris Stock Exchange closed down 0.74% at 3757 points, erasing some of its losses in the wake of Wall Street, which came in the green for a surprise cut stocks U.S. crude oil.

After degradation, yesterday, by the Fitch rating of the debt of Greece, the rating agency Standard and Poor's said Wednesday it lowered the outlook for Spain to "negative" cons "stable "Now his notes from" AA + ". S & P expects "GDP growth significantly lower fiscal deficits and persistent" for Spain.For 2010, the Spanish government expects the public deficit represented 8.1% of GDP.

The sharp downward revision of Japan's growth in the third quarter (+1.2% to +0.3%) also urges caution.

In the United States, the U.S. Treasury announced the extension until October 2010 bailout of banks (TARP), a budget line of $ 700 billion, passed in October 2008, which was also used to bail out the auto industry .

Summary of values

On the Cac 40, only five values are displayed in green. Unibail rose 0.99%, 0.30% EDF, Bouygues of 0.18%, Air Liquide of 0.10% and Suez Environment of 0.03%.EDF announced on Wednesday that it will participate in a tender for the construction of several nuclear reactors in Abu Dhabi, via a consortium with GDF Suez (+0.55%) which held the reins.

Alcatel-Lucent, Lagardere, Vallourec and Peugeot yield more than 2%. Axa closes walking and cowardly 3.98%. The meeting is also painful for ADP, down 3%. In a statement released Wednesday, ADP has lowered its performance outlook for 2010, now expecting to achieve an EBITDA of between 850 and 880 million euros, while the previously anticipated between 900 and 960 million .

EADS yields 1.02%. According to Les Echos, the group may be removed from the Galileo project for the benefit of HBO. This has indeed been selected for a first batch of 8 satellites in the 22 remaining building. For other lots, the European group will agree to make sacrifices.

Areva lost 4.44%.Its president, Yves Martin, will be at 11.30, a hearing on the international strategy of the nuclear group to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly.

Mercialys fell by 2.73%. The group will enjoy the next change of SBF. The company created by casino will integrate the SBF 120 index after the close of the meeting of December 18.

Derichebourg gaining 3%. The group noted, under the 2008-2009 fiscal year with a current operating loss of 5.4 million. The second half ended September 30, earnings reached 25.2 million for a turnover down 43% to 2.4 billion euros.

Compagnie des Alpes (-0.66%) said Wednesday it had acquired 90% of the company operating the ski resort of Les Deux Alpes.46 million euros have been disbursed for this operation, conducted by a consortium of Compagnie des Alpes has 60%, Caisse des Depots 19%, the Banque Populaire des Alpes 12.6%, and Caisse d'Epargne Rh?ne Alpes 8.4%.

Restructure its debt and enter the stock market with a dual listing in Hong Kong and Paris. This was the program of Russian Rusal, the world's largest producer of aluminum this year. The first step has been completed on time.

Prior to renegotiation, the group's debt amounted to 16.8 billion dollars (for a 2008 turnover of 15.7 billion dollars). It was reduced to 14.9 billion dollars. The group has completed one of its primary goals: reduce cost.

In detail, the 7.4 billion driven by international creditors (including large French banks) will be settled in two stages. The first four years, Rusal make principal repayments on the basis of its available cash. Interest will be paid partly in cash and the balance will be funded.

Then, the remaining debt will be refinanced for an additional period of three years. A similar agreement was reached with the creditors of the Russian group, which are 2.1 billion of debt, the new rate of 8-9%.

A value of 30 billion dollars

RUSAL also signed an agreement with Onexim – a leading Russian investment fund – the creditor group to the tune of 2.7 billion. The fund has agreed to convert $ 1.82 billion in a 6% shareholding in Rusal. This therefore values the company at 30.3 billion dollars.

Finally, net debt, estimated at 5 billion by counting the future interest will be subject to periodic payments by the fourth quarter 2013. The group has already indicated that some funds raised on financial markets would be used to repay debt.About 5 billion would be spent.

Oleg Deripaska, Rusal CEO and principal shareholder, welcomed "a project of such size and complexity without precedent." It remains now to get the stock exchange's business under pain of seeing nationalized. And even the Russian state does not acquire a significant share of its capital.

However, the IPO of Rusal is far from being a plain sailing. The group plans to make its debut on the coast of Hong Kong before the end of the year. A calendar that may be difficult to hold. In 2007, Rusal was considered a listing in London before giving it up.

Air France would seek to lower its costs, including the medium-haul. According to The Tribune on Tuesday, the company would increase 15 to 20% the productivity of its flight personnel (pilots, flight attendants) to counter the stiff competition from airlines Low-cost flights and the TGV.

The newspaper said the number of flight hours performed by the pilots could spend an average of 565 per year to 650. They totaled 700 at Easyjet, Ryanair 900 and 850 hours at Transavia, low-cost subsidiary of Air France. The group would however have to review the collective agreements which run until 2011 for pilots and 2013 cabin crew.

The newspaper said that these figures were announced Friday by the Director General Bruno Matheu marketing at an internal meeting between the leadership and cadres of the group.However, management told AFP today that she "had never advanced figure Friday. However, "reform on the short and medium haul should be prior consultation with the aircrew," she added.